A. Italiano vs Nublense

Primera División· Regular Season - 18
A. Italiano
22Full-time
Nublense
WWDDGoals 15-1513th in league
LWWWGoals 12-144th in league
Home4W 4D 3L(18-13)
Away4W 4D 1L(12-11)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 9'M. Rivera (J. Campusano)
  2. 34'M. Fuentes
  3. 42'E. Ferrario
  4. 45+3'Pablo Calderón
  5. 65'Bryan Soto (A. Uribe)
  6. 65'M. Fuentes (M. Sandoval)
  7. 67'L. Molina Canto (C. Mansilla)
  8. 67'Pablo Calderón (F. Campos Mosqueira)
  9. 69'F. Campos Mosqueira
  10. 73'F. Mateos (F. Salomoni)
  11. 74'F. Troyansky (D. Coelho)
  12. 75'G. Graciani (V. Guzman)
  13. 75'G. Graciani (E. Calderon)
  14. 83'P. Guajardo (D. Pizarro)
  15. 85'M. Ortiz
  16. 90+2'M. Plaza
  17. 90+4'M. Plaza (A. Valdés)
  18. 90+5'M. Rivera (D. Saavedra)
  19. 90+5'D. Saavedra
  20. 90+12'César Pinares

Lineups

A. ItalianoNublense
1.5
Goals/game
1.2
1.5
Conceded/game
1.4

AI match analysis

A. Italiano win
40%
Draw
28%
Nublense win
32%
56.7%BTTS
53.1%Over 2.5
25.9%A. Italiano clean sheet
23.5%Nublense clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

Data suggests A. Italiano has a strong historical edge in their recent matchups against Nublense, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. While A. Italiano scored an average of 1.8 goals per game in their last 10 matches, Nublense struggled offensively, averaging only 1 goal per game. This context, combined with A. Italiano's recent performance at home, favors them for a narrow victory.

  • A. Italiano has won the last 3 home games against Nublense
  • Nublense has scored 1 goal or fewer in 4 of their last 5 matches
  • Historically, A. Italiano has won 4 out of the last 5 encounters against Nublense

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked A. Italiano at 40% — final result was a draw, A. Italiano 2-2 Nublense.

Predicted score was 1-0.

Closing odds vs. our model

A. Italiano2.28market 43.9% · model 40%
Nublense2.98market 33.5% · model 32%
Draw3.21market 31.1% · model 28%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • A. Italiano have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Nublense have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5A. Italiano wins
1Draws
2Nublense wins
12-7Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

A. Italiano2.28best 2.39
Draw3.21best 3.44
Nublense2.98best 3.10

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.04best 2.11
Under 2.51.73best 1.79

Both teams to score

Yes1.78best 1.80
No1.92best 2.00

Double chance

A. Italiano/Draw1.34best 1.40
A. Italiano/Nublense1.30best 1.36
Draw/Nublense1.55best 1.62

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.28best 1.28
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.75best 2.75
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.40best 1.40
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.50best 3.50

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

A. Italiano2.28 0.01
Draw3.21 0.01
Nublense2.98 0.04
10 Aug11 Aug

Model vs market

A. Italiano win-0.4pp
AI
40%
Market
40.4%
Draw-0.7pp
AI
28%
Market
28.7%
Nublense win+1.1pp
AI
32%
Market
30.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
13
A. Italiano
20578-322DDWL
4
Nublense
19883+332WDWD

Pre-match comparison

1.5Goals scored per game1.2
1.5Goals conceded per game1.4

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

A. Italiano

0-15'
100%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Nublense

0-15'
0%
16-30'
25%
31-45'
25%
46-60'
25%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
25%

More Primera División predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win A. Italiano vs Nublense?+

Our AI model favors A. Italiano to win, with a 40% probability (Draw 28%, Nublense 32%).

What time does A. Italiano vs Nublense kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).