Aalesund vs Valerenga
Match events
- 3'M. Christensen
- 13'L. Haren (L. Haren)
- 14'Mathias Grundetjern
- 16'M. Reed (E. Osenbroch)
- 29'E. Hagen
- 33'L. Haren (Mathias Grundetjern)
- 35'J. Orsahl
- 46'G. Rajkovic (M. Westergaard)
- 46'Sebastian Jarl (Hakon Sjatil)
- 46'J. Orsahl (K. Nesso)
- 56'M. Christensen (Uba Charles)
- 60'M. Reed (K. Lonebu)
- 63'Petter Strand (Mohamed Ofkir)
- 70'Mathias Grundetjern (Mohamed Ofkir)
- 73'Ivan Näsberg (K. Tshiembe)
- 74'L. Haren (O. Saeter)
- 74'Uba Charles (M. Andresen)
- 74'Ó. Guðmundsson (Philip Sandvik Aukland)
- 76'K. Tshiembe
- 85'Petter Strand (Ghayas Zahid)
- 85'Carl Lange (K. Finnsson)
Lineups
- 2.4
- Goals/game
- 2.0
- 0.9
- Conceded/game
- 1.8
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Valerenga has a strong historical advantage over Aalesund, having won 4 of their last 5 meetings. Aalesund's struggle for wins at home, paired with Valerenga's better scoring record, favors the away side in this matchup.
- Valerenga has won 4 of the last 5 encounters against Aalesund
- Aalesund has 5 draws at home this season, indicating difficulties in converting opportunities
- Valerenga averages 1.4 goals per match, while Aalesund concedes an average of 1 goal per game
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Valerenga
- Tighter defenseAalesund
Aalesund are conceding just 0.9 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.9/game conceded - Historical edgeValerenga
Valerenga have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins - Higher league positionValerenga
Valerenga sit 4 places above Aalesund in the table.
#11 vs #15 - Poor recent formValerenga
Valerenga have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Valerenga at 40% — final result was a draw, Aalesund 5-5 Valerenga.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (69/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Aalesund have averaged 2.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Valerenga have averaged 2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Valerenga
AalesundAalesundValerengaAalesundValerengaValerengaAalesundValerengaAalesundAalesundValerengaValerengaAalesundAalesundValerengaOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Aalesund
Valerenga
More Eliteserien predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Aalesund vs Valerenga?+
Our AI model favors Valerenga to win, with a 40% probability (Draw 24%, Aalesund 36%).
What time does Aalesund vs Valerenga kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 12:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).