Aarhus vs Benfica
Value found
+4% edgeAarhus win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 19'G. Prestianni (A. Bah)
- 22'E. Barrenechea
- 25'M. Camara
- 45'Rasmus Carstensen
- 46'J. Serra (S. Tchamche)
- 56'Rafa Silva (S. Dahl)
- 60'Rasmus Carstensen
- 61'G. Prestianni (C. Lenglet)
- 62'M. Anderson (Sebastian Jørgensen)
- 63'K. Arnstad (M. Knudsen)
- 65'Rafa Silva (A. Schjelderup)
- 65'G. Sudakov (G. Moreira)
- 66'M. Anderson (Sebastian Jørgensen)
- 69'L. Callo (Colin Rösler)
- 74'G. Prestianni (D. Lukebakio)
- 74'V. Pavlidis (J. Duran)
- 83'C. Lenglet (A. Circati)
- 83'G. Links (F. Emmery)
- 84'V. Pavlidis (J. Duran)
Lineups
- 1.6
- Goals/game
- 2.2
- 1.7
- Conceded/game
- 1.1
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-3
The data suggests Benfica holds a strong advantage going into this match, having won their last encounter with Aarhus decisively. Historically, Benfica's scoring averages outpace Aarhus's defensive vulnerabilities, with Aarhus conceding 1.7 goals per game. With Benfica maintaining robust form, the odds favor them significantly to secure a victory.
- Aarhus lost 3-1 to Benfica in their last encounter.
- Benfica averages 2.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Aarhus has conceded an average of 1.7 goals per game in their last 10 matches.
- Benfica is unbeaten in their last 5 matches, winning 4 of them.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Benfica
- Historical edgeBenfica
Benfica have won 1 of the last 1 meetings between these two teams.
1/1 H2H wins - Poor recent formAarhus
Aarhus have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L - Sharper attackBenfica
Benfica are averaging 2.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.2/game - Tighter defenseBenfica
Benfica are conceding just 1.1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Benfica at 67% — final result was Benfica win, Aarhus 1-3 Benfica.
Predicted score was 1-3.
This was a high confidence pick (86/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Aarhus have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Benfica have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Aarhus
Benfica
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Aarhus vs Benfica?+
Our AI model favors Benfica to win, with a 67% probability (Draw 18%, Aarhus 15%).
What time does Aarhus vs Benfica kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 27, 2026, 6:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).