ADO Den Haag vs Groningen — Eredivisie

Eredivisie· Regular Season - 2

ADO Den Haag

1–4Full-time

Groningen

WWWWLLGoals 21-1117th in league

LLLWLLGoals 19-248th in league

Home0W 0D 1L(1-4)

Away1W 0D 1L(5-6)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

15'T. van Bergen (Pelle Clement)
30'B. Willumsson (E. Vaessen)
45+2'D. van der Werff (T. Land)
46'Matteo Waem (Othniël Raterink)
46'M. Hokke (Othniël Raterink)
47'J. Žambůrek (F. de Bruin)
55'Yannick Eduardo (F. de Bruin)
58'E. van der Laan (M. Csinger)
59'Yannick Eduardo (Luka Reischl)
69'J. Bal (Evan Rottier)
78'Pascal Mulder (Lasse Wilhelm)
80'B. Willumsson (N. Eggens)
82'N. Eggens (T. van Bergen)
83'D. van der Werff
87'T. Land (T. Hernes)
87'W. Prins (Jacob Ondrejka)
89'T. de Jonge (N. Brandis)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

ADO Den HaagGroningen

2.1
Goals/game: 1.9; 1.1
Conceded/game: 2.4

AI match analysis

ADO Den Haag win

34%

Draw

26%

Groningen win

40%

69.5%BTTS

72.3%Over 2.5

22.3%ADO Den Haag clean sheet

10.5%Groningen clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The statistical analysis suggests that Groningen holds an advantage as they currently sit higher in the league standings and have shown better recent form with a win in their last match. Historically, Groningen has performed well against ADO Den Haag, winning 3 out of their last 5 encounters. With ADO Den Haag struggling defensively, the numbers favor an away victory for Groningen.

Groningen ranked 6th in the league standings with 3 points from 1 match played
ADO Den Haag has lost their last match and has an overall negative goal difference
Historically, Groningen has won 3 of the last 5 encounters against ADO Den Haag
Groningen averages 1.8 goals scored per game across their last 10 matches

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

71/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Groningen

Tighter defenseADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag are conceding just 1.1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game conceded
Higher league positionGroningen
Groningen sit 9 places above ADO Den Haag in the table.
#8 vs #17
Historical edgeGroningen
Groningen have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Poor recent formADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Groningen at 40% — final result was Groningen win, ADO Den Haag 1-4 Groningen.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Groningen ✓2.43market 41.1% · model 40%

ADO Den Haag2.68market 37.3% · model 34%

Draw3.52market 28.4% · model 26%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

ADO Den Haag have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Groningen have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2ADO Den Haag wins

2Draws

4Groningen wins

3-8Goals

ADO Den Haag

0–2Mar 29, 2024, 7:00 PM

Groningen

0–1Sep 15, 2023, 6:00 PM

ADO Den Haag

Groningen

3–0Jan 26, 2021, 8:00 PM

ADO Den Haag

0–1Sep 20, 2020, 10:15 AM

Groningen

ADO Den Haag

1–1Dec 14, 2019, 5:30 PM

Groningen

1–0Mar 17, 2019, 1:30 PM

ADO Den Haag

1–0Oct 6, 2018, 4:30 PM

Groningen

0–0Feb 11, 2018, 3:45 PM

ADO Den Haag

Odds comparison

Match winner

ADO Den Haag2.68▼best 2.80

Draw3.52▼best 3.70

Groningen2.43▲best 2.51

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.66▲best 1.70

Under 2.52.19▼best 2.25

Both teams to score

Yes1.53▲best 1.57

No2.36▼best 2.40

Double chance

ADO Den Haag/Draw1.53▼best 1.57

ADO Den Haag/Groningen1.28▲best 1.31

Draw/Groningen1.45▲best 1.50

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.22▼best 1.22

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.90▲best 4.00

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.00▼best 4.00

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.21▲best 1.22

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

ADO Den Haag2.68▼ 0.03

Draw3.52▼ 0.08

Groningen2.43▲ 0.12

13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

ADO Den Haag win-0.9pp

34%

Market

34.9%

Draw-0.6pp

26%

Market

26.6%

Groningen win+1.5pp

40%

Market

38.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.