ADT vs Alianza Atletico

Primera División· Clausura - 5

ADT

1–1Full-time

Alianza Atletico

WDWDDLGoals 11-1410th in league

LLDWWWGoals 12-108th in league

Home4W 2D 3L(14-9)

Away2W 2D 5L(9-13)

Match events

25'Jairo Molina (Cristian Penilla)
29'J. Bauman (Jhair Soto)
34'Jorge Del Castillo
40'Erick Perleche
45+2'Jorge Del Castillo
45+2'Jorge Del Castillo
59'Jairo Molina
61'H. Benincasa (Alejandro Ramos)
62'Jerry Navarro (J. Lucumi)
65'A. Gordillo (J. Mendieta)
66'Angel Ojeda
69'R. Suarez
72'S. Peralta (A. Hidalgo)
72'Erick Perleche (Williams Guzmán)
72'Angel Ojeda (Hernán Rengifo)
86'Jose Lujan
87'J. Bauman (J. Bauman)
87'J. J. Canela Torres
89'Luis Pérez
90+2'O. Nunez (J. Garcilazo)
90'Jairo Molina (Stefano Fernández)
90'J. Ingratti (G. A. Larios Saavedra)

Lineups

ADT

Alianza Atletico

4-4-24-2-3-1

Francisco UsucarCoach

Federico Urciuoli

Bench (9)

AI match analysis

ADT win

47%

Draw

28%

Alianza Atletico win

25%

47.3%BTTS

41.7%Over 2.5

27.3%ADT clean sheet

35%Alianza Atletico clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a close match between ADT and Alianza Atletico, with both teams struggling in their recent form. ADT remains winless at home this season and has yet to secure a victory, while Alianza Atletico has only managed a couple of wins overall and lost both away matches. Historically, head-to-head results indicate a slight edge for ADT, therefore a draw or narrow victory for either side seems probable.

ADT is winless in their last 5 matches (DLLLL)
Alianza Atletico has lost both of their away games this season
ADT has a recent head-to-head advantage, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

83/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors ADT

Higher league positionAlianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico sit 2 places above ADT in the table.
#8 vs #10
Good recent formAlianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pick✓ Exact score

We picked ADT at 47% — final result was a draw, ADT 1-1 Alianza Atletico.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (83/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

ADT1.80market 55.6% · model 47%

Draw ✓3.50market 28.5% · model 28%

Alianza Atletico4.17market 24% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

ADT have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Alianza Atletico have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3ADT wins

2Draws

3Alianza Atletico wins

8-9Goals

ADT

1–0Sep 26, 2025, 6:15 PM

Alianza Atletico

2–0May 4, 2025, 8:30 PM

ADT

0–1Sep 28, 2024, 8:00 PM

Alianza Atletico

1–2Apr 28, 2024, 7:30 PM

ADT

1–0Sep 24, 2023, 6:00 PM

Alianza Atletico

1–1May 6, 2023, 6:00 PM

ADT

Alianza Atletico

2–2Sep 10, 2022, 6:15 PM

ADT

1–2Apr 24, 2022, 8:00 PM

Alianza Atletico

Odds comparison

Match winner

ADT1.80▼best 2.01

Draw3.50▲best 3.68

Alianza Atletico4.17▲best 4.57

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.87▼best 1.95

Under 2.51.87▲best 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes1.76▲best 1.83

No1.96▼best 2.00

Double chance

ADT/Draw1.21▼best 1.28

ADT/Alianza Atletico1.26▼best 1.33

Draw/Alianza Atletico1.91▲best 2.05

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.62▼best 2.62

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44▲best 1.44

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.20▼best 1.20

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.33▲best 4.33

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

ADT1.80▼ 0.20

Draw3.50▲ 0.20

Alianza Atletico4.17▲ 0.47

12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

ADT win-4.4pp

AI

47%

Market

51.4%

Draw+1.6pp

AI

28%

Market

26.4%

Alianza Atletico win+2.8pp

AI

25%

Market

22.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.