Akhmat vs FC Rostov — Premier League

Premier League· Regular Season - 5

Akhmat

4–1Full-time

FC Rostov

DLDDLWGoals 10-1210th in league

DLLDDWGoals 9-812th in league

Home1W 0D 1L(5-3)

Away1W 1D 2L(6-8)

Match events

5'G. Melkadze (A. Adamov)
40'T. Suleymanov (Konstantin Kuchaev)
54'M. Keliano (K. Shchetinin)
54'A. Adamov (M. Sidorov)
55'Oumar Sako
57'Y. Mikhaylov
57'Konstantin Kuchaev
59'G. Melkadze (L. Sadulaev)
68'T. Ibishev (L. Sadulaev)
70'I. Komarov (E. Golenkov)
70'A. Mironov (D. Prokhin)
76'Y. Mikhaylov (I. Aznaurov)
77'Ismael Silva (Kalidou Sidibe)
77'G. Melkadze (E. Maksuti)
78'L. Sadulaev (K. Shchetinin)
84'Oumar Sako (A. Shamonin)
85'L. Sadulaev (A. Kasadzhikov)
85'Konstantin Kuchaev (D. Shantaliy)

Lineups

Akhmat

FC Rostov

5-4-14-3-3

Stanislav CherchesovCoach

Jonatan Alba

AI match analysis

Akhmat win

39%

Draw

30%

FC Rostov win

31%

38.6%BTTS

31%Over 2.5

35%Akhmat clean sheet

40.7%FC Rostov clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a tightly balanced matchup between Akhmat and FC Rostov, underscored by both teams' recent forms and historical encounters. Akhmat struggles at home and has not secured a win this season, while FC Rostov's performance has been more stable, leading to a forecasted score that reflects potential deadlock.

Akhmat has not won any of their last 5 matches (LDLD)
FC Rostov has drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (DDWL)
Historically, the last 5 encounters are closely contested with no team dominating.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

73/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Akhmat

Strong home recordAkhmat
Akhmat have won 1 of their last 2 home matches.
1/2 home wins
Weak away recordFC Rostov
FC Rostov have won 1 of their last 4 away matches.
1/4 away wins
Higher league positionAkhmat
Akhmat sit 2 places above FC Rostov in the table.
#10 vs #12
Sharper attackAkhmat
Akhmat are averaging 1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Akhmat at 39% — final result was Akhmat win, Akhmat 4-1 FC Rostov.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Akhmat ✓2.49market 40.2% · model 39%

FC Rostov3.04market 32.9% · model 31%

Draw3.10market 32.3% · model 30%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Akhmat have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
FC Rostov have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Akhmat wins

2Draws

3FC Rostov wins

9-13Goals

Akhmat

1–0Mar 21, 2026, 10:45 AM

FC Rostov

1–1Aug 30, 2025, 5:45 PM

Akhmat

2–1Apr 12, 2025, 4:30 PM

FC Rostov

2–3Oct 26, 2024, 4:00 PM

Akhmat

0–0Dec 9, 2023, 1:30 PM

FC Rostov

3–0Oct 22, 2023, 4:00 PM

Akhmat

FC Rostov

3–2May 28, 2023, 4:00 PM

Akhmat

FC Rostov

3–0Nov 27, 2022, 11:00 AM

Akhmat

Odds comparison

Match winner

Akhmat2.49▲best 2.56

Draw3.10▼best 3.20

FC Rostov3.04▼best 3.20

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.28▲best 2.35

Under 2.51.65▼best 1.70

Both teams to score

Yes1.89▲best 1.89

No1.82▼best 1.83

Double chance

Akhmat/Draw1.37▲best 1.40

Akhmat/FC Rostov1.36▲best 1.40

Draw/FC Rostov1.54▼best 1.57

Average and best price across 6 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Akhmat2.49▲ 0.05

Draw3.10▼ 0.08

FC Rostov3.04▼ 0.15

19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Akhmat win+0.9pp

AI

39%

Market

38.1%

Draw-0.6pp

AI

30%

Market

30.6%

FC Rostov win-0.3pp

AI

31%

Market

31.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.