Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal — Stars League

Stars League· Regular Season - 2

Al-Gharafa

1–3Full-time

Al Shamal

LLLDDWGoals 12-265th in league

DWLLLDGoals 12-152nd in league

Home1W 0D 1L(3-4)

Away1W 1D 0L(5-3)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

24'M. Hrimat (Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane)
25'A. Al Saeed
25'A. Hassan
31'Alex Collado
46'A. Al Saeed (O. Mohamed)
52'F. Díaz (A. Surag)
55'F. Coman
56'O. Mohamed
66'W. Said (B. Bounedjah)
66'A. Hassan (F. Waad)
71'R. Al Ali (S. Fadlalla)
77'M. Khoder (A. Asad)
79'O. Mohamed
82'F. Coman (H. Aladin)
90+1'A. Asad (O. Mohamed)
90+4'A. Al Oui (A. Mohamed)
90+4'M. Awad
90+8'B. Bounedjah (O. Mohamed)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Al-GharafaAl Shamal

1.2
Goals/game: 1.2; 2.6
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

Al-Gharafa win

34.99%

Draw

25.18%

Al Shamal win

39.83%

63%BTTS

63%Over 2.5

15%Al-Gharafa clean sheet

25.9%Al Shamal clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that despite Al-Gharafa's recent strong standing and home success, they face a historical challenge from Al Shamal, who have fared well against them in past encounters. Al-Gharafa's defensive issues may be exploited by Al Shamal, who bring a balanced scoring average to this matchup. The numbers favor a narrow victory for the away side, reflecting their recent head-to-head dominance.

Al-Gharafa has a recent home win against Al Shahaniya and is currently in the top 3 of the league.
Al Shamal has not lost to Al-Gharafa in their last five encounters, with a recent draw and two wins.
Al-Gharafa concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game in their last 10 matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

71/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Al Shamal

Strong home recordAl-Gharafa
Al-Gharafa have won 1 of their last 2 home matches.
1/2 home wins
Strong away recordAl Shamal
Al Shamal have won 1 of their last 2 away matches.
1/2 away wins
Tighter defenseAl Shamal
Al Shamal are conceding just 1.5 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game conceded
Historical edgeAl Shamal
Al Shamal have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Al Shamal at 39.83% — final result was Al Shamal win, Al-Gharafa 1-3 Al Shamal.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Al Shamal ✓2.31market 43.3% · model 39.83%

Al-Gharafa2.62market 38.2% · model 34.99%

Draw3.51market 28.5% · model 25.18%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Al-Gharafa have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Al Shamal have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Al-Gharafa wins

3Draws

3Al Shamal wins

8-9Goals

Al-Gharafa

0–1Feb 22, 2026, 6:30 PM

Al Shamal

0–0Sep 20, 2025, 3:00 PM

Al-Gharafa

Al Shamal

1–2Feb 8, 2025, 1:30 PM

Al-Gharafa

1–1Sep 13, 2024, 3:00 PM

Al Shamal

1–0Apr 28, 2024, 3:30 PM

Al-Gharafa

1–1Dec 9, 2023, 2:30 PM

Al Shamal

Al-Gharafa

3–2Feb 20, 2023, 1:45 PM

Al Shamal

2–1Aug 17, 2022, 4:35 PM

Al-Gharafa

Odds comparison

Match winner

Al-Gharafa2.62best 2.71

Draw3.51▼best 3.81

Al Shamal2.31▲best 2.40

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.57▲best 1.61

Under 2.52.27▼best 2.35

Both teams to score

Yes1.47▲best 1.50

No2.45▼best 2.50

Double chance

Al-Gharafa/Draw1.53▲best 1.62

Al-Gharafa/Al Shamal1.24▲best 1.29

Draw/Al Shamal1.41▼best 1.47

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.20▲best 1.20

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.33▼best 4.33

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.22▼best 1.22

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.00▲best 4.00

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Al-Gharafa2.62▲ 0.01

Draw3.51▼ 0.01

Al Shamal2.31▲ 0.04

27 Aug – 27 Aug

Model vs market

Al-Gharafa win+0.3pp

34.99%

Market

34.7%

Draw-0.7pp

25.18%

Market

25.9%

Al Shamal win+0.4pp

39.83%

Market

39.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.