Arouca vs Moreirense
Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca · Capacity 7,000 · grass · Referee: A. Narciso
Match events
- 14'Maracás
- 16'Javi Sánchez
- 23'Maracás
- 30'Jose Fontán (H. Lee)
- 41'Ivan Barbero
- 44'Kiko
- 45+1'Ivan Barbero (Naïs Djouahra)
- 46'A. Vieira (J. Veloso)
- 46'Guilherme Liberato (D. Pinto)
- 55'N. John
- 59'Ivan Barbero (D. Nandin)
- 63'Landerson (Kiko Bondoso)
- 65'L. Santos
- 72'H. Lee (B. Mansilla)
- 72'A. Trezza (P. Gozalbez)
- 72'Rodrigo Alonso (Mateja Stjepanović)
- 75'D. Nandin
- 79'Taichi Fukui (Pedro Santos)
- 79'E. van Ee (M. Flores)
- 84'L. Santos (M. Dacosta Gonzalez)
- 90+1'D. Nandin (Naïs Djouahra)
- 1.1
- Goals/game
- 1.4
- 1.2
- Conceded/game
- 1.5
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The data suggests a closely matched contest between Arouca and Moreirense, particularly considering their recent form and historical encounters. Arouca has shown resilience, remaining unbeaten in their last five, while Moreirense has struggled defensively, conceding frequently. Given the head-to-head history indicates tight results, a draw appears plausible.
- Arouca unbeaten in their last five matches with two wins
- Moreirense has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game over their last 10 matches
- Recent head-to-head suggests a tightly contested match with three draws in the last five encounters
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Arouca
- Historical edgeMoreirense
Moreirense have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins - Higher league positionArouca
Arouca sit 10 places above Moreirense in the table.
#6 vs #16 - Sharper attackMoreirense
Moreirense are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game - Tighter defenseArouca
Arouca are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Arouca at 48.55% — final result was Arouca win, Arouca 4-0 Moreirense.
Predicted score was 1-1.
This was a high confidence pick (83/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Arouca have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Moreirense have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Arouca
MoreirenseMoreirenseAroucaMoreirenseAroucaAroucaMoreirenseAroucaMoreirenseMoreirenseAroucaAroucaMoreirenseMoreirenseAroucaOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 | LD |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Narciso
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Arouca
Moreirense
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FC PortoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Arouca vs Moreirense?+
Our AI model favors Arouca to win, with a 48.55% probability (Draw 28.67%, Moreirense 22.79%).
Where is Arouca vs Moreirense played?+
The match is played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca (capacity 7,000).
What time does Arouca vs Moreirense kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 5:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).