Atlanta Dream W vs Indiana Fever W
Gateway Center Arena
Value found
+1.5% edgeAtlanta Dream W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 170 total points vs the market's 187.5 line — leans under by 17.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlanta Dream W | 21 | 23 | 28 | 9 | 10 | 91 |
 Indiana Fever W | 21 | 19 | 24 | 17 | 14 | 95 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 90-80
Data suggests that despite the close head-to-head record, Atlanta Dream has been strong at home, winning 70% of their games there this season. The Fever, while competitive, have allowed a high average of points in recent games, which may favor the Dream's efficient offense.
- Atlanta Dream have a 70% home win rate this season.
- Indiana Fever's last 10 games show a scoring average of 85.3 points but allowed 84.1 points.
- In the last 5 encounters, the teams are nearly split, with Atlanta winning 3 and Indiana winning 2.
Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Atlanta Dream W
- Tighter defenseAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W are conceding just 85.8 points per game over their recent matches.
85.8/game conceded - Good recent formAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Good recent formIndiana Fever W
Indiana Fever W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Sharper attackAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W are averaging 95.7 points scored per game over their recent matches.
95.7/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Atlanta Dream W at 58% — final result was Indiana Fever W win, Atlanta Dream W 91-95 Indiana Fever W.
Predicted score was 90-80.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (64/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Atlanta Dream W have averaged 95.7 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Indiana Fever W have averaged 99.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Atlanta Dream W are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Indiana Fever W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Atlanta Dream W | Indiana Fever W |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 2.06▼ | 1.71▲ |
| -3 | 1.99▼ | 1.78▲ |
| -2.5 | 1.93▼ | 1.83▲ |
| -2 | 1.91▼ | 1.89▲ |
| -1.5 | 1.82▼ | 1.93▲ |
| -1 | 1.76▼ | 2.00▲ |
| -0.5 | 1.83▲ | 2.00▼ |
| +0.5 | 1.83▲ | 2.00▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 185.5 | 1.73▲ | 2.03▼ |
| 186 | 1.75▲ | 2.00▼ |
| 186.5 | 1.80▲ | 1.93▼ |
| 187 | 1.84▲ | 1.92▼ |
| 187.5 | 1.89▲ | 1.87▼ |
| 188 | 1.93▲ | 1.83▼ |
| 188.5 | 1.96▲ | 1.79▼ |
| 189 | 1.99▲ | 1.76▼ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 |  New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 |  Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Atlanta Dream W vs Indiana Fever W?+
Our AI model favors Atlanta Dream W to win, with a 58% probability (Indiana Fever W 42%).
What time does Atlanta Dream W vs Indiana Fever W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 16, 2026, 9:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Atlanta Dream W vs Indiana Fever W?+
Atlanta Dream W: 21-23-28-9 (OT 10). Indiana Fever W: 21-19-24-17 (OT 14). Final: 91-95.