Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Value found
+6.7% edgeAtlanta Falcons win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
 Denver Broncos | 7 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 27 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 23-27
The statistics suggest a competitive matchup, with the Denver Broncos having a slight edge historically, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has shown strong recent form by winning 4 of their last 5, though their defensive vulnerabilities are evident with an average of 24.7 points conceded. The Broncos' average of only 18.5 points allowed in recent matches reinforces their defensive strength, potentially giving them the upper hand.
- Atlanta Falcons won 4 of their last 5 games
- Denver Broncos' defense conceded only 18.5 points on average in last 10 matches
- Head-to-head history favors Denver Broncos, winning 3 of the last 4 matchups
Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Denver Broncos
- Tighter defenseDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos are conceding just 19.5 points per game over their recent matches.
19.5/game conceded - Historical edgeAtlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams.
3/4 H2H wins - Good recent formAtlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Poor recent formDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 43/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 50% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Denver Broncos at 50% — final result was Denver Broncos win, Atlanta Falcons 7-27 Denver Broncos.
Predicted score was 23-27.
The model itself only flagged this as a low confidence pick (43/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Atlanta Falcons have averaged 21.6 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Denver Broncos have averaged 22 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Atlanta Falcons are unbeaten in 3 of the last 4 meetings with Denver Broncos.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Atlanta Falcons | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| +3 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
| +3.5 | 1.88▼ | 1.85▼ |
| +4 | 1.98▲ | 1.86▼ |
| +4.5 | 1.86▼ | 1.90▲ |
| +5 | 1.77▼ | 1.93▲ |
| +5.5 | 1.84▼ | 1.92▲ |
| +6 | 1.80 | 1.99 |
| +6.5 | 1.78▼ | 2.01▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| 37.5 | 1.80▼ | 1.97▲ |
| 38.5 | 1.83▼ | 1.91▲ |
| 39 | 1.77 | 1.93 |
| 39.5 | 1.85▼ | 1.91▲ |
| 40 | 1.90▼ | 1.89▲ |
| 40.5 | 1.91 | 1.86▼ |
| 41 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
More NFL predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos?+
Our AI model favors Denver Broncos to win, with a 50% probability (Atlanta Falcons 50%).
What time does Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 14, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos?+
Atlanta Falcons: 0-0-7-0. Denver Broncos: 7-17-0-3. Final: 7-27.