Atletico Grau vs Comerciantes Unidos

Primera División· Clausura - 5

Atletico Grau

1–0Full-time

Comerciantes Unidos

WLLLDWGoals 10-136th in league

LDLWDWGoals 13-129th in league

Home2W 0D 1L(4-2)

Away1W 2D 5L(9-15)

Match events

13'F. Alcedo
27'Fabio Rojas
37'Piero Guzmán
44'A. de la Cruz
51'Paulo De La Cruz
63'Gabriel Alfaro (Elsar Rodas)
63'Mauro Da Luz (Luis Benites)
65'Agustín Rodriguez (J. Olivares)
66'Mathías Carpio (Thiago Salinas)
71'Diego Barreto (A. Vasquez)
79'Christian Vasquez (Ignacio Tapia)
79'Paulo De La Cruz (Diego Rodríguez)
84'J. Herrera (W. Ayovi)
88'Piero Guzmán
88'R. Vilca (E. M. Perez Azambuya)
90'E. M. Perez Azambuya

Lineups

Atletico Grau

Comerciantes Unidos

4-2-3-14-2-3-1

Gerardo AmeliCoach

Claudio Biaggio

Bench (9)

AI match analysis

Atletico Grau win

47.75%

Draw

29.32%

Comerciantes Unidos win

22.93%

48.5%BTTS

43%Over 2.5

27.3%Atletico Grau clean sheet

33.3%Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a competitive matchup between Atletico Grau and Comerciantes Unidos, with neither team in particularly strong form. Atletico Grau has struggled to secure wins recently, but their home advantage may play a role. Meanwhile, Comerciantes Unidos has managed a recent away victory, lending them some confidence. Overall, a close game is anticipated, possibly ending in a draw.

Atletico Grau has only won 1 of their last 5 matches.
Comerciantes Unidos has a recent record of 1 win in their last 5 matches.
Historically, the last 4 encounters have produced 2 draws.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

82/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Atletico Grau

Good recent formComerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Strong home recordAtletico Grau
Atletico Grau have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.
2/3 home wins
Weak away recordComerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos have won 1 of their last 8 away matches.
1/8 away wins
Higher league positionAtletico Grau
Atletico Grau sit 3 places above Comerciantes Unidos in the table.
#6 vs #9

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Atletico Grau at 47.75% — final result was Atletico Grau win, Atletico Grau 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (82/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Atletico Grau ✓2.26market 44.3% · model 47.75%

Draw3.02market 33.1% · model 29.32%

Comerciantes Unidos3.32market 30.1% · model 22.93%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Atletico Grau have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Comerciantes Unidos have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

1Atletico Grau wins

2Draws

1Comerciantes Unidos wins

8-6Goals

Atletico Grau

1–2Aug 15, 2025, 8:00 PM

Comerciantes Unidos

2–2Mar 27, 2025, 6:00 PM

Atletico Grau

3–0Jul 31, 2024, 6:00 PM

Comerciantes Unidos

2–2Feb 19, 2024, 8:00 PM

Atletico Grau

Odds comparison

Match winner

Atletico Grau2.26▲best 2.45

Draw3.02▼best 3.20

Comerciantes Unidos3.32▼best 4.25

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.38▲best 2.45

Under 2.51.53▼best 1.57

Both teams to score

Yes1.99▼best 2.06

No1.73▲best 1.80

Double chance

Atletico Grau/Draw1.29▲best 1.36

Atletico Grau/Comerciantes Unidos1.33▲best 1.36

Draw/Comerciantes Unidos1.61▼best 1.90

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.25▼best 3.25

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.33▲best 1.33

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.50▲best 2.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.50▼best 1.50

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Atletico Grau2.26▲ 0.42

Draw3.02▼ 0.19

Comerciantes Unidos3.32▼ 1.06

11 Aug – 14 Aug

Model vs market

Atletico Grau win+6.5pp

AI

47.75%

Market

41.2%

Draw-1.5pp

AI

29.32%

Market

30.8%

Comerciantes Unidos win-5.1pp

AI

22.93%

Market

28%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.