Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A

Primera A· Clausura - 7

Atletico Nacional

2–1Full-time

Deportivo Cali

WDDWLWGoals 10-91st in league

LWLDWDGoals 9-149th in league

Home8W 1D 0L(22-3)

Away2W 2D 5L(8-10)

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin · Capacity 45,943 · grass

Match events

18'A. Sarmiento (M. Moreno)
38'M. Correa (A. Manyoma)
45'Mateus Uribe
46'Fernando Álvarez (Nicolás Benedetti)
52'Mateus Uribe
52'Mateus Uribe
53'E. Cardona
56'S. Velasquez (M. Casco)
56'E. Cardona (F. Marin)
60'A. Manyoma
64'M. Moreno (F. Marin)
65'Eduard Bello (Carlos Bacca)
65'Avilés Hurtado (L. Chaverra)
73'A. Morelos (Cristian Arango)
73'Andrés Román (C. Haydar)
74'Nicolás Benedetti (Fabian Viafara)
80'A. Sarmiento (I. Poveda)
85'Fabian Viafara (J. Martinez)
87'K. Sandoval
87'J. Campuzano
88'F. Marin
90+1'J. C. Caldera Alvis

Lineups

Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Cali

4-2-3-13-4-2-1

Lucas GonzalezCoach

Rafael Dudamel

Bench (8)

Bench (9)

AI match analysis

Atletico Nacional win

61%

Draw

24%

Deportivo Cali win

15%

41.5%BTTS

35%Over 2.5

40.7%Atletico Nacional clean sheet

30.1%Deportivo Cali clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

The data suggests a favorable outcome for Atletico Nacional, who remain dominant at home with a strong record. Deportivo Cali's struggles on the road and inconsistent defensive form could hinder their chances. Historically, Atletico Nacional has outperformed Deportivo Cali in their recent encounters, further tilting the prediction towards a home victory.

Atletico Nacional unbeaten at home this season with 8 wins from 9 matches
Deportivo Cali has conceded 1.4 goals per game in their last 10 matches
Atletico Nacional's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Head-to-head record shows Atletico Nacional has won 2 out of the last 5 meetings against Deportivo Cali.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

97/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Atletico Nacional

Higher league positionAtletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional sit 8 places above Deportivo Cali in the table.
#1 vs #9
Strong home recordAtletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional have won 8 of their last 9 home matches.
8/9 home wins
Weak away recordDeportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali have won 2 of their last 9 away matches.
2/9 away wins
Tighter defenseAtletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional are conceding just 0.9 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.9/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Atletico Nacional at 61% — final result was Atletico Nacional win, Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Cali.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (97/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Atletico Nacional ✓1.54market 65% · model 61%

Draw3.86market 25.9% · model 24%

Deportivo Cali6.05market 16.5% · model 15%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Atletico Nacional have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Deportivo Cali have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Atletico Nacional wins

4Draws

2Deportivo Cali wins

13-11Goals

Atletico Nacional

2–1Oct 15, 2025, 12:30 AM

Deportivo Cali

1–0Apr 20, 2025, 11:20 PM

Atletico Nacional

1–1Oct 10, 2024, 12:30 AM

Deportivo Cali

3–2Feb 17, 2024, 1:20 AM

Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Cali

1–1Aug 6, 2023, 11:10 PM

Atletico Nacional

1–1Feb 13, 2023, 1:10 AM

Deportivo Cali

Atletico Nacional

3–0Sep 18, 2022, 10:35 PM

Deportivo Cali

3–3Mar 22, 2022, 11:10 PM

Atletico Nacional

Odds comparison

Match winner

Atletico Nacional1.54▼best 1.60

Draw3.86▲best 4.10

Deportivo Cali6.05▲best 6.50

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.94▼best 2.00

Under 2.51.82▲best 1.90

Both teams to score

Yes1.97▼best 2.00

No1.74best 1.80

Double chance

Atletico Nacional/Draw1.11▼best 1.15

Atletico Nacional/Deportivo Cali1.22▼best 1.25

Draw/Deportivo Cali2.36▲best 2.45

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.15▼best 1.17

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.73▲best 1.73

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.00▼best 2.00

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.00▲best 5.00

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Atletico Nacional1.54▼ 0.05

Draw3.86▲ 0.14

Deportivo Cali6.05▲ 0.44

24 Aug – 27 Aug

Model vs market

Atletico Nacional win+0.5pp

AI

61%

Market

60.5%

Draw-0.1pp

AI

24%

Market

24.1%

Deportivo Cali win-0.4pp

AI

15%

Market

15.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.