Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Cup· Group Stage - 2
Baltika
11After Penalties
Dinamo Makhachkala
LWLDGoals 10-13
WLWLGoals 12-11
Rostec Arena

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad · Capacity 35,212 · grass · Referee: D. Kashirin

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 18'S. Varatynov
  2. 22'Mingiyan Beveev
  3. 46'Mingiyan Beveev (E. Ćivić)
  4. 46'S. Varatynov (I. Kirsch)
  5. 47'V. Pospelov (Mikhail Ryadno)
  6. 60'V. Pospelov (T. Yenne)
  7. 62'E. Smelov (M. Apshatsev)
  8. 62'D. Lesovoy (N. Glushkov)
  9. 67'M. Apshatsev
  10. 69'S. Kagermazov (T. Sundukov)
  11. 70'B. Gil (D. Nikitin)
  12. 73'R. Magomedov (H. Mrezigue)
  13. 73'A. Dzhabrailov (S. Serderov)
  14. 85'K. Shiltsov (Stefan Kovač)

Lineups

BaltikaDinamo Makhachkala
1.0
Goals/game
1.2
1.3
Conceded/game
1.1

AI match analysis

Baltika win
48%
Draw
30%
Dinamo Makhachkala win
22%
46.4%BTTS
40.4%Over 2.5
28.7%Baltika clean sheet
35%Dinamo Makhachkala clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a tightly contested match given the recent performances of both teams. Baltika has struggled lately, losing four of their last five matches, while Dinamo Makhachkala has shown a better form, winning three of their latest five fixtures. Historically, their head-to-head encounters have been competitive, including a draw and a previous win for Baltika. The predicted score reflects a likely low-scoring game, considering both teams' scoring averages.

  • Baltika has lost 4 of their last 5 matches
  • Dinamo Makhachkala won 3 of their last 5 matches
  • Last 2 head-to-head encounters resulted in a draw and a win for Baltika
  • Overall scoring averages favor a low-scoring match based on recent form
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
68/100

Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Baltika

  • Poor recent formBaltika

    Baltika have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 1D 3L
  • Good recent formDinamo Makhachkala

    Dinamo Makhachkala have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Historical edgeBaltika

    Baltika have won 1 of the last 2 meetings between these two teams.

    1/2 H2H wins
  • Sharper attackDinamo Makhachkala

    Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 1.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.2/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pick✓ Exact score

We picked Baltika at 48% — final result was a draw, Baltika 1-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Baltika2.04market 49.1% · model 48%
Draw3.13market 32% · model 30%
Dinamo Makhachkala3.89market 25.7% · model 22%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Baltika have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Dinamo Makhachkala have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Baltika wins
1Draws
0Dinamo Makhachkala wins
4-2Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Baltika2.04best 2.12
Draw3.13best 3.20
Dinamo Makhachkala3.89best 4.14

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.34best 2.42
Under 2.51.59best 1.60

Both teams to score

Yes1.99best 2.00
No1.73best 1.74

Double chance

Baltika/Draw1.22best 1.27
Baltika/Dinamo Makhachkala1.32best 1.38
Draw/Dinamo Makhachkala1.80best 1.97

Average and best price across 6 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Baltika2.04 0.09
Draw3.13 0.17
Dinamo Makhachkala3.89 0.64
17 Aug20 Aug

Model vs market

Baltika win+2.1pp
AI
48%
Market
45.9%
Draw0pp
AI
30%
Market
30%
Dinamo Makhachkala win-2.1pp
AI
22%
Market
24.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Standings not available yet.

Pre-match comparison

1Goals scored per game1.2
1.3Goals conceded per game1.1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Baltika

0-15'
20%
16-30'
20%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
20%
76-90+'
40%

Dinamo Makhachkala

0-15'
33.3%
16-30'
33.3%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
33.3%

Match statistics

%Possession%
Expected goals (xG)
Shots on target
Total shots
Shots off target
Blocked shots
Shots inside the box
Shots outside the box
Corners
Offsides
Fouls
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
Goalkeeper saves
Total passes
Accurate passes
%Pass accuracy%

More Cup predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala?+

Our AI model favors Baltika to win, with a 48% probability (Draw 30%, Dinamo Makhachkala 22%).

Where is Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala played?+

The match is played at Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad (capacity 35,212).

What time does Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 PM (your local time, based on your device).