Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Highmark Stadium
Value found
+30.1% edgeBuffalo Bills win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 3 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 14 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 28-13
Data suggests the Buffalo Bills are in strong form, averaging 28.7 points per game in their last 10 outings while allowing only 19.1. In contrast, the Pittsburgh Steelers have managed just 18.5 points per game and faced difficulties, losing 3 of their last 5 matches. The historical head-to-head also favors the Bills, who have consistently outperformed the Steelers in recent meetings.
- Buffalo Bills scoring an average of 28.7 points over last 10 matches
- Pittsburgh Steelers averaging only 18.5 points scored in last 10 matches
- Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5 matchups against Pittsburgh Steelers
- Steelers have struggled with 3 losses in their last 5 games
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Buffalo Bills
- Tighter defenseBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills are conceding just 21.1 points per game over their recent matches.
21.1/game conceded - Historical edgeBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Good recent formBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Poor recent formPittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Buffalo Bills at 79% — final result was Buffalo Bills win, Buffalo Bills 28-27 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Predicted score was 28-13.
This was a high confidence pick (80/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Buffalo Bills have averaged 28.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Pittsburgh Steelers have averaged 18.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Buffalo Bills are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Pittsburgh Steelers.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Buffalo Bills | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| -4 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| -3.5 | 1.98 | 1.80 |
| -3 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| -2.5 | 1.78▼ | 1.98▲ |
| -2 | 1.91▼ | 1.89▲ |
| -1.5 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
| -1 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
| +1.5 | 1.71 | 2.04 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
| 34 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
| 34.5 | 1.82 | 1.90 |
| 35 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| 35.5 | 1.90 | 1.88 |
| 36 | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| 36.5 | 1.96 | 1.79 |
| 37 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers?+
Our AI model favors Buffalo Bills to win, with a 79% probability (Pittsburgh Steelers 21%).
What time does Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 27, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers?+
Buffalo Bills: 3-7-7-11. Pittsburgh Steelers: 14-0-7-6. Final: 28-27.