Carabobo FC vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División

Primera División· Clausura - 4

Carabobo FC

1–0Full-time

Metropolitanos FC

WDDLLDGoals 13-71st in league

WWLLWWGoals 15-152nd in league

Home1W 2D 0L(2-1)

Away3W 1D 2L(6-5)

Unknown

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

19'Y. Caricote (Francisco Manenti)
45+2'J. Berios
45+3'E. Arzu
45+5'George Ayine
53'E. Arzu (J. Berios)
62'D. Zalzman (R. Sangiovani)
62'R. Figueroa (M. Diaz)
62'E. Arzu (L. Martinez)
66'Yohandry Orozco
70'S. Ramírez (J. Ramírez)
70'K. Ortiz (J. Riasco)
71'Darwin Machís (D. Meza)
71'Yohandry Orozco (E. Castillo)
77'D. Meza
85'J. Berios (J. Fuentes)
86'S. Mendoza (Matías Núñez)
90+4'M. Diaz
90+4'J. Fuentes
90+5'A. Ferro

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Carabobo FCMetropolitanos FC

1.3
Goals/game: 1.5; 0.7
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

Carabobo FC win

57%

Draw

25%

Metropolitanos FC win

18%

50.3%BTTS

45.6%Over 2.5

33.3%Carabobo FC clean sheet

24.7%Metropolitanos FC clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that Carabobo FC holds a significant advantage in this matchup, particularly due to their perfect home record this season. Historically, they have dominated Metropolitanos FC, achieving four victories in their last five meetings. Meanwhile, Metropolitanos FC's defensive vulnerabilities may factor into their performance, potentially leading to more goals for the home side.

Carabobo FC unbeaten at home this season with 4 wins and 3 draws from 7 matches
Carabobo FC has a strong recent head-to-head record, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC has struggled defensively with an average of 1.5 goals conceded per game in their last 10 matches.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

93/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Carabobo FC

Historical edgeCarabobo FC
Carabobo FC have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Weak home recordCarabobo FC
Carabobo FC have won 1 of their last 3 home matches.
1/3 home wins
Strong away recordMetropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC have won 3 of their last 6 away matches.
3/6 away wins
Tighter defenseCarabobo FC
Carabobo FC are conceding just 0.7 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.7/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Carabobo FC at 57% — final result was Carabobo FC win, Carabobo FC 1-0 Metropolitanos FC.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (93/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Carabobo FC ✓1.58market 63.3% · model 57%

Draw3.61market 27.7% · model 25%

Metropolitanos FC5.10market 19.6% · model 18%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Carabobo FC have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Metropolitanos FC have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Carabobo FC wins

3Draws

1Metropolitanos FC wins

15-8Goals

Metropolitanos FC

0–4Nov 5, 2025, 11:30 PM

Carabobo FC

1–0Oct 22, 2025, 9:30 PM

Metropolitanos FC

Carabobo FC

0–0Aug 2, 2025, 11:30 PM

Metropolitanos FC

Carabobo FC

2–2Jun 7, 2025, 9:30 PM

Metropolitanos FC

1–3May 2, 2025, 10:00 PM

Carabobo FC

Metropolitanos FC

3–0Feb 23, 2025, 10:45 PM

Carabobo FC

2–2Aug 22, 2024, 11:45 PM

Metropolitanos FC

Carabobo FC

3–0Jun 2, 2024, 9:00 PM

Metropolitanos FC

Odds comparison

Match winner

Carabobo FC1.58▼best 1.62

Draw3.61▼best 3.80

Metropolitanos FC5.10▲best 5.54

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.87▲best 1.94

Under 2.51.84▼best 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes1.87▲best 1.91

No1.81▼best 1.85

Double chance

Carabobo FC/Draw1.11▼best 1.15

Carabobo FC/Metropolitanos FC1.21▼best 1.25

Draw/Metropolitanos FC2.17▲best 2.25

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.14▼best 1.14

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.50▲best 5.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.57▼best 1.57

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.25▲best 2.25

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Carabobo FC1.58▼ 0.07

Draw3.61▲ 0.31

Metropolitanos FC5.10▲ 0.35

14 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Carabobo FC win-0.2pp

57%

Market

57.2%

Draw-0.1pp

25%

Market

25.1%

Metropolitanos FC win+0.3pp

18%

Market

17.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.