Catanzaro vs Sudtirol
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro · Capacity 14,650 · grass
Value found
+2.2% edgeCatanzaro win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 17'Niklas Pyyhtiä
- 26'Simone Pafundi (M. D'Alessandro)
- 34'N. Mosti
- 40'F. Davi
- 46'F. Davi (S. Molina)
- 53'Pietro Iemmello
- 63'M. D'Alessandro (Mehdi Dorval)
- 68'R. Burnete (Simone Davì)
- 68'B. Bjarkson (K. Mixtur)
- 69'Matias Antonini
- 73'B. Verrengia (R. Frosinini)
- 73'Simone Pafundi (Nicolò Buso)
- 80'Aljoša Vasić (Daniele Casiraghi)
- 81'M. Ruggero (E. Bashi)
- 81'Pietro Iemmello (G. Arditi)
- 85'K. Mixtur (S. Tronchin)
- 88'Vasco Lopes
- 90+1'G. Alesi
- 120+1'Riccardo Stivanello
- 120+1'J. Petriccione
- 120+2'Vasco Lopes
- 120+2'Nicolò Buso
- 120+3'Daniele Casiraghi
- 120+3'R. Frosinini
- 120+4'S. Molina
- 120+4'G. Arditi
- 120+5'Simone Davì
- 1.9
- Goals/game
- 0.6
- 1.6
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests that Catanzaro has shown resilience at home, winning 3 of their last 5 matches. In contrast, Sudtirol struggles offensively, averaging just 0.7 goals per game over the last 10 matches. While the historical head-to-head shows a competitive balance, the recent form favors Catanzaro to edge out a narrow victory.
- Catanzaro has won 3 of their last 5 matches at home.
- Sudtirol has scored only 0.7 goals per game in their last 10 matches.
- Historically, their last 5 encounters have ended with mixed results, but Catanzaro did secure a significant home win in the prior match.
Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Catanzaro
- Sharper attackCatanzaro
Catanzaro are averaging 1.9 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.9/game - Poor recent formCatanzaro
Catanzaro have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Tighter defenseCatanzaro
Catanzaro are conceding just 1.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Catanzaro at 46% — final result was a draw, Catanzaro 2-2 Sudtirol.
Predicted score was 2-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Catanzaro have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Sudtirol have averaged 0.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Catanzaro
Sudtirol
More Coppa Italia predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Catanzaro vs Sudtirol?+
Our AI model favors Catanzaro to win, with a 46% probability (Draw 29%, Sudtirol 25%).
Where is Catanzaro vs Sudtirol played?+
The match is played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro (capacity 14,650).
What time does Catanzaro vs Sudtirol kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 4:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).