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CD Olimpia vs CD Motagua

Liga Nacional· Apertura - 3
CD Olimpia
3–1Full-time
CD Motagua
WWDWGoals 21-131st in league
LDWDGoals 13-107th in league
Home2W 0D 0L(5-1)
Away1W 0D 1L(4-3)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 4'J. Portillo
  2. 8'M. Chirinos
  3. 40'D. Meléndez
  4. 51'R. García
  5. 52'E. Cuello
  6. 57'Jesus Baitz (J. Macías)
  7. 70'E. Cuello (C. Canales)
  8. 70'M. Chirinos (I. Enríquez)
  9. 70'J. Rodriguez (K. Peña)
  10. 71'J. Serrano
  11. 73'K. Guity
  12. 77'I. Enríquez
  13. 78'J. Benguché (Y. Arboleda)
  14. 79'J. Portillo (R. Gomez)
  15. 80'K. Guity (F. Garcia)
  16. 82'Cristopher Meléndez
  17. 82'L. Vega (P. Cacho)
  18. 83'I. Enríquez
  19. 83'J. Macías
  20. 87'O. Discua
  21. 88'C. Canales
Lineups unavailable for this match.
CD OlimpiaCD Motagua
2.1
Goals/game
1.3
1.3
Conceded/game
1.0

AI match analysis

CD Olimpia win
43.13%
Draw
30.12%
CD Motagua win
26.76%
57.3%BTTS
54.2%Over 2.5
27.3%CD Olimpia clean sheet
21.2%CD Motagua clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The match analysis indicates a competitive encounter, as CD Olimpia has been strong at home, winning their only match this season. In their recent form, Olimpia has shown the ability to score frequently, averaging over two goals per game in their last ten matches. Meanwhile, CD Motagua has struggled with consistency, often finding themselves in draws, which may impact their chances in this away fixture.

  • CD Olimpia has won 3 of their last 5 matches
  • CD Olimpia has a positive home record this season
  • CD Motagua has drawn their last 3 matches
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
78/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors CD Olimpia

  • Good recent formCD Olimpia

    CD Olimpia have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 1D 1L
  • Sharper attackCD Olimpia

    CD Olimpia are averaging 2.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.1/game
  • Historical edgeCD Olimpia

    CD Olimpia have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    4/8 H2H wins
  • Higher league positionCD Olimpia

    CD Olimpia sit 6 places above CD Motagua in the table.

    #1 vs #7

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 43% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked CD Olimpia at 43.13% — final result was CD Olimpia win, CD Olimpia 3-1 CD Motagua.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (78/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

CD Olimpia ✓1.99market 50.2% · model 43.13%
Draw3.18market 31.5% · model 30.12%
CD Motagua3.45market 29% · model 26.76%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • CD Olimpia have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • CD Motagua have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4CD Olimpia wins
2Draws
2CD Motagua wins
11-6Goals
CD Motagua
0–1Apr 12, 2026, 11:15 PM
CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia
0–1Feb 23, 2026, 12:00 AM
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
1–1Dec 21, 2025, 1:00 AM
CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia
2–0Dec 18, 2025, 1:30 AM
CD Motagua
CD Olimpia
2–2Oct 17, 2025, 1:30 AM
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
0–2Aug 2, 2025, 11:15 PM
CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia
1–2Apr 20, 2025, 11:15 PM
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
0–2Feb 16, 2025, 1:30 AM
CD Olimpia

Odds comparison

Match winner

CD Olimpia1.99▲best 2.10
Draw3.18▼best 3.50
CD Motagua3.45▼best 3.75

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.03▲best 2.10
Under 2.51.70▼best 1.80

Both teams to score

Yes1.84▲best 1.88
No1.83▼best 1.87

Double chance

CD Olimpia/Draw1.24▲best 1.30
CD Olimpia/CD Motagua1.27▲best 1.35
Draw/CD Motagua1.70▼best 1.83

Average and best price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

CD Olimpia1.99▲ 0.26
Draw3.18▼ 0.33
CD Motagua3.45▼ 0.60
14 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

CD Olimpia win-2.3pp
AI
43.13%
Market
45.4%
Draw+1.7pp
AI
30.12%
Market
28.4%
CD Motagua win+0.6pp
AI
26.76%
Market
26.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1
CD Olimpia
4310+610DWWW
7
CD Motagua
4202+26WLLW

Pre-match comparison

2.1Goals scored per game1.3
1.3Goals conceded per game1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

CD Olimpia

0-15'
12.5%
16-30'
12.5%
31-45'
25%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
25%
76-90+'
25%

CD Motagua

0-15'
16.7%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
66.7%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
16.7%
76-90+'
0%

More Liga Nacional predictions

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Liga Nacional
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X4.1621.00%
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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win CD Olimpia vs CD Motagua?+

Our AI model favors CD Olimpia to win, with a 43.13% probability (Draw 30.12%, CD Motagua 26.76%).

What time does CD Olimpia vs CD Motagua kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 11:15 PM (your local time, based on your device).