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Ceara vs Cuiaba

Serie B· Regular Season - 22
Ceara
1–3Full-time
Cuiaba
LLLWGoals 9-1317th in league
WDWDGoals 9-1113th in league
Home5W 3D 5L(15-15)
Away3W 5D 3L(10-9)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 6'Marcelo Carné (João Carlos)
  2. 41'Jean Dias (Eliel)
  3. 46'Giovanni Pavani (L. Mugni)
  4. 46'Pepê (David Miguel)
  5. 46'Vina (Melk)
  6. 54'Calebe
  7. 58'R. Ramos (Enzo Valentim Lodovico)
  8. 58'N. Ferreira (Renzo López)
  9. 59'Richardson
  10. 67'Giulio (Matheus Araújo)
  11. 69'Calebe
  12. 70'Enzo Valentim Lodovico (Lucca)
  13. 71'Eliel (Kauan Cristtyan)
  14. 80'Lorenzo (Weverson)
  15. 80'Jean Dias (Rodrigo Rodrigues)
  16. 87'Substitution 6 (Kauã Ziegler)
  17. 88'Pedro Henrique (Vinicius Peixoto)
  18. 88'Enzo Valentim Lodovico (Kauã Ziegler)
  19. 90+7'Kauan Cristtyan (Rodrigo Rodrigues)
  20. 90'Eder

Lineups

Ceara
Cuiaba
4-2-3-1
3-4-2-1
6.0
1. Richard
6
5.2
6. Sávio
33
6.2
33. Eder
6.3
18. Julio Cesar
2
← 58'
2. R. Ramos
6.5C
26. Richardson
6.9← 46'
21. Giovanni Pavani
6.3← 67'
35. Giulio
29
6.2← 46'
29. Vina
20
6.7← 58'
20. N. Ferreira
7.2
99. Lucca
96
6.7← 88'
96. Pedro Henrique
8.2← 80'
77. Jean Dias
7.2← 71'
11. Eliel
6.3← 80'
36. Lorenzo
8
6.9← 46'
8. Pepê
6.6C
30. Raul
2
7.3
2. Igor
6.7
4. Vitor Mendes
7.2
5. Calebe
13
6.3
13. João Basso
31
← 6'
31. Marcelo Carné
Paulista DanielCoachEduardo Barros
Bench (12)
Bench (10)
CearaCuiaba
0.9
Goals/game
0.9
1.3
Conceded/game
1.1

AI match analysis

Ceara win
40.93%
Draw
32.72%
Cuiaba win
26.35%
42.2%BTTS
35%Over 2.5
33.3%Ceara clean sheet
36.8%Cuiaba clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The analysis suggests a closely contested match between Ceara and Cuiaba, with both teams displaying inconsistent form. Historically, their head-to-head encounters have been tight, featuring low scoring and frequent draws. The statistical data favors a draw, with both sides averaging similar goals both scored and conceded in their recent matches.

  • Ceara is unbeaten in their last 3 home games against Cuiaba.
  • Cuiaba has struggled recently with only 1 win in their last 5 matches.
  • Ceara has a slightly better overall recent form with 2 wins in their last 5.
  • Both teams are closely ranked in the standings, with just 1 point separating them.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
74/100

Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Ceara

  • Poor recent formCeara

    Ceara have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 1D 3L
  • Strong recent formCuiaba

    Cuiaba are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 2 wins.

    2W 3D 0L
  • Historical edgeCeara

    Ceara have won 1 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

    1/4 H2H wins
  • Weak home recordCeara

    Ceara have won 5 of their last 13 home matches.

    5/13 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Ceara at 40.93% — final result was Cuiaba win, Ceara 1-3 Cuiaba.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Ceara2.28market 43.9% · model 40.93%
Draw2.84market 35.3% · model 32.72%
Cuiaba ✓3.52market 28.4% · model 26.35%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Ceara have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Cuiaba have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

1Ceara wins
3Draws
0Cuiaba wins
4-3Goals
Ceara
1–1Oct 16, 2022, 7:00 PM
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
0–0Jun 18, 2022, 10:00 PM
Ceara
Ceara
1–0Nov 7, 2021, 11:30 PM
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
2–2Jul 11, 2021, 9:15 PM
Ceara

Odds comparison

Match winner

Ceara2.28▲best 2.37
Draw2.84▼best 2.96
Cuiaba3.52▼best 3.85

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.87▲best 3.10
Under 2.51.38▼best 1.43

Both teams to score

Yes2.27▲best 2.38
No1.56▼best 1.60

Double chance

Ceara/Draw1.26▲best 1.31
Ceara/Cuiaba1.38▲best 1.42
Draw/Cuiaba1.60▼best 1.65

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.44▲best 1.44
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.62▼best 2.62
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.67▼best 1.67
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.10▲best 2.10

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Ceara2.28▲ 0.16
Draw2.84▼ 0.09
Cuiaba3.52▼ 0.14
12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Ceara win+0.1pp
AI
40.93%
Market
40.8%
Draw-0.1pp
AI
32.72%
Market
32.8%
Cuiaba win0pp
AI
26.35%
Market
26.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
17
Ceara
247710-528LLWW
13
Cuiaba
247125+333WWDD

Pre-match comparison

0.9Goals scored per game0.9
1.3Goals conceded per game1.1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Ceara

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
50%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
0%

Cuiaba

0-15'
25%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
75%
76-90+'
0%

Match statistics

64%Possession36%
0.33Expected goals (xG)2.25
3Shots on target5
7Total shots14
4Shots off target8
0Blocked shots1
4Shots inside the box10
3Shots outside the box4
4Corners5
1Offsides2
17Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
—Red cards—
3Goalkeeper saves2
487Total passes267
420Accurate passes198
86%Pass accuracy74%

Player ratings

Box score

Ceara

2
2R. Ramos—
—
33
33EderD · 90'
🟨6.2
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes49%
Tackles—
Duels43%
99LuccaF · 90'
🅰️ 17.2
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes16%
Tackles1
Duels64%
26Richardson (C)M · 90'
🟨6.5
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes64%
Tackles—
Duels36%
1RichardG · 90'
6.0
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes16%
Tackles—
Duels—
20
20N. FerreiraM · 58'
6.7
More stats
Shots1/2 on target
Passes20%
Tackles—
Duels40%
6
6SávioD · 90'
5.2
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes57%
Tackles—
Duels33%
29
29VinaM · 45'
6.2
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes12%
Tackles—
Duels25%
21Giovanni PavaniM · 45'
6.9
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes21%
Tackles1
Duels71%
35GiulioM · 67'
6.3
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes11%
Tackles1
Duels29%
18Julio CesarD · 90'
6.3
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes53%
Tackles1
Duels57%
Bench (12)
11
11L. MugniM · 45'
6.9
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes34%
Tackles1
Duels50%
8Matheus AraújoM · 23'
6.6
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes5%
Tackles—
Duels0%
7Renzo LópezF · 32'
6.9
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes6%
Tackles1
Duels71%
13Luiz OtávioD
—
31
31Bryan—
—
12
12SanchezD
—
40MelkM · 45'
6.6
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes14%
Tackles—
Duels63%
60Enzo Valentim LodovicoF · 29'
⚽ 17.7
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes6%
Tackles2
Duels50%
90Kauã ZieglerF · 13'
6.3
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes1%
Tackles—
Duels0%
22Matheus NogueiraG
—
71Gabriel RochaM
—
88CaioM
—

Cuiaba

77Jean DiasF · 80'
⚽ 18.2
More stats
Shots1/3 on target
Passes3%
Tackles2
Duels67%
11ElielF · 71'
🅰️ 17.2
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes5%
Tackles—
Duels33%
13
13João BassoD · 90'
6.3
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes31%
Tackles2
Duels63%
96
96Pedro HenriqueF · 88'
6.7
More stats
Shots0/2 on target
Passes9%
Tackles1
Duels50%
8
8PepêM · 45'
6.9
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes11%
Tackles2
Duels50%
5CalebeD · 90'
⚽ 1🟨7.2
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes36%
Tackles—
Duels29%
2
2IgorM · 90'
7.3
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes18%
Tackles5
Duels67%
30Raul (C)M · 90'
6.6
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes22%
Tackles2
Duels50%
31
31Marcelo CarnéG · 6'
—
36LorenzoM · 80'
6.3
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes12%
Tackles1
Duels20%
4Vitor MendesD · 90'
6.7
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes20%
Tackles2
Duels67%
Bench (10)
41Kauan CristtyanF · 19'
⚽ 17.3
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes1%
Tackles—
Duels100%
29Vinicius PeixotoF · 12'
6.6
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes—
Tackles—
Duels50%
97
97Luiz Otavio—
—
27Rodrigo RodriguesF · 10'
🅰️ 17.3
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes2%
Tackles—
Duels100%
1João CarlosG · 84'
7.6
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes14%
Tackles—
Duels—
20David MiguelM · 45'
7.0
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes11%
Tackles2
Duels64%
53WeversonM · 10'
7.0
More stats
Shots— on target
Passes3%
Tackles1
Duels75%
91Luis SoaresD
—
37RailanM
—
39Gui MansanoF
—

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Ceara vs Cuiaba?+

Our AI model favors Ceara to win, with a 40.93% probability (Draw 32.72%, Cuiaba 26.35%).

What time does Ceara vs Cuiaba kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).