Club Nacional vs Progreso
Match events
- 17'Marco Saravia
- 17'S. Bruschi
- 29'Marco Saravia
- 34'S. Bruschi (F. Garcia)
- 36'A. dos Santos
- 46'T. Verón (J. De Los Santos)
- 46'B. Zuculini (L. Boggio)
- 46'A. dos Santos (R. Martinez)
- 65'M. Juambeltz (N. Acosta)
- 65'F. De Leon (M. Copelotti)
- 70'A. Rogel (Ruben Botta)
- 76'A. Ocampo (J. Silva)
- 76'E. Alvarez (L. Couture)
- 77'J. Silva
- 79'T. Correa (Maximiliano Silvera)
- 84'R. Bacchia
- 87'Francisco Calvo
- 89'Maximiliano Silvera
- 0.8
- Goals/game
- 0.8
- 1.6
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-0
While Club Nacional is currently on a disappointing run, their position in the standings and historical strength against Progreso suggest they can capitalize on their opponent's offensive struggles. The numbers indicate that a low-scoring game might favor the home team, likely leading to a predicted victory with a score of 2-0.
- Club Nacional has lost their last three matches but remains in 2nd place in the standings.
- Progreso has scored only twice in their last five matches, indicating struggling offense.
- Historically, Club Nacional has a strong recent head-to-head record against Progreso, winning three of the last five encounters.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Club Nacional
- Poor recent formClub Nacional
Club Nacional have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Poor recent formProgreso
Progreso have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L - Historical edgeClub Nacional
Club Nacional have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
4/6 H2H wins - Higher league positionClub Nacional
Club Nacional sit 5 places above Progreso in the table.
#2 vs #7
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Club Nacional at 66.82% — final result was Club Nacional win, Club Nacional 1-0 Progreso.
Predicted score was 2-0.
This was a high confidence pick (100/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Club Nacional have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Progreso have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | LDWL |
| 7 |  Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 | WLLW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. Fernandez
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Club Nacional
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Deportivo MaldonadoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Club Nacional vs Progreso?+
Our AI model favors Club Nacional to win, with a 66.82% probability (Draw 20.41%, Progreso 12.77%).
What time does Club Nacional vs Progreso kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).