Club Queretaro vs Toluca

Liga MX· Apertura - 5
Club Queretaro
12Full-time
Toluca
LLLDGoals 4-137th in league
LLWDGoals 14-113rd in league
Home1W 0D 1L(3-3)
Away2W 1D 0L(4-1)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 19'A. Vega
  2. 30'Card upgrade — Diego Barbosa
  3. 30'Diego Barbosa
  4. 45+2'Penalty confirmed — Ali Ávila
  5. 45+5'Fernando Arce Juárez
  6. 45+6'Ali Ávila (Ali Ávila)
  7. 46'A. Vega (N. Castro)
  8. 46'Fernando Arce Juárez (B. A. Garcia Caprizo)
  9. 55'Ali Ávila
  10. 58'Alejandro Alcala (M. Coronel)
  11. 58'Paulo Victor (Iker Benito)
  12. 65'Helinho
  13. 74'N. Castro
  14. 74'Bayron Duarte (Waldo Madrid)
  15. 74'Carlo Adriano García (Mono Martínez)
  16. 74'Helinho (Luan)
  17. 74'J. Angulo (J. Diaz Price)
  18. 79'Santiago Homenchenko (Daniel Parra)
  19. 81'Iker Benito
  20. 85'Bruno Méndez (V. Guzman)
  21. 89'Santiago Homenchenko
  22. 90+3'Daniel Parra (Eduardo Perez)
  23. 90'Federico Viñas

Lineups

Club QueretaroToluca
0.4
Goals/game
1.4
1.3
Conceded/game
1.1

AI match analysis

Club Queretaro win
25%
Draw
25%
Toluca win
50%
39.1%BTTS
35%Over 2.5
25.9%Club Queretaro clean sheet
47.2%Toluca clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Analysis suggests that Toluca may have the upper hand due to their better scoring average and league standing. Queretaro's recent form indicates struggles in front of goal, which could limit their chances against a Toluca side that has performed well away from home. Historically, matches between these teams have been competitive, but the data leans towards an away victory.

  • Toluca ranked 5th in the league compared to Queretaro's 7th
  • Toluca has a stronger recent scoring average at 1.4 goals per game
  • Queretaro's recent form shows they only scored 0.4 goals per game in the last 10 matches
  • The last 5 head-to-head matches have been closely contested with 2 draws and 3 wins split evenly between both teams.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
87/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Toluca

  • Poor recent formClub Queretaro

    Club Queretaro have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

    0W 1D 4L
  • Sharper attackToluca

    Toluca are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.4/game
  • Historical edgeToluca

    Toluca have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    3/8 H2H wins
  • Tighter defenseToluca

    Toluca are conceding just 1.1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1.1/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pick✓ Exact score

We picked Toluca at 50% — final result was Toluca win, Club Queretaro 1-2 Toluca.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (87/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Toluca1.86market 53.8% · model 50%
Draw3.74market 26.8% · model 25%
Club Queretaro3.74market 26.7% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Club Queretaro have averaged 0.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Toluca have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Club Queretaro wins
3Draws
3Toluca wins
12-15Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Club Queretaro3.74best 4.00
Draw3.74best 3.98
Toluca1.86best 1.93

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.59best 1.65
Under 2.52.27best 2.35

Both teams to score

Yes1.54best 1.57
No2.32best 2.38

Double chance

Club Queretaro/Draw1.89best 2.01
Club Queretaro/Toluca1.24best 1.28
Draw/Toluca1.25best 1.29

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.33best 1.33
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.13best 3.25
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes5.63best 6.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.12best 1.12

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Club Queretaro3.74 0.11
Draw3.74 0.02
Toluca1.86 0.09
19 Aug22 Aug

Model vs market

Club Queretaro win+0.1pp
AI
25%
Market
24.9%
Draw+0.1pp
AI
25%
Market
24.9%
Toluca win-0.1pp
AI
50%
Market
50.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
7
Club Queretaro
3201+16WWL
3
Toluca
5311+410DWLW

Pre-match comparison

0.4Goals scored per game1.4
1.3Goals conceded per game1.1

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Club Queretaro

0-15'
20%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
80%

Toluca

0-15'
33.3%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
33.3%
46-60'
33.3%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

Match statistics

50%Possession50%
1.7Expected goals (xG)1.47
3Shots on target3
18Total shots18
9Shots off target11
6Blocked shots4
11Shots inside the box9
7Shots outside the box9
7Corners6
1Offsides0
15Fouls8
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1
1Goalkeeper saves2
370Total passes385
300Accurate passes310
81%Pass accuracy81%

Player ratings

Box score

Club Queretaro

13
13D. Reyes (C)D · 90'
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes28%
Tackles3
Duels63%
2Lucas AbasciaD · 90'
5.9
More stats
Shots1/1 on target
Passes39%
Tackles2
Duels40%
1🟨8.0
More stats
Shots1/3 on target
Passes39%
Tackles3
Duels50%
9Ali ÁvilaF · 90'
🟨6.3
More stats
Shots0/2 on target
Passes8%
Tackles1
Duels38%
12Paulo VictorM · 58'
6.6
More stats
Shots on target
Passes12%
Tackles1
Duels25%
16
16E. GiménezM · 90'
6.2
More stats
Shots0/2 on target
Passes33%
Tackles
Duels30%
More stats
Shots0/2 on target
Passes36%
Tackles
Duels67%
25
25G. AllisonG · 90'
6.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes18%
Tackles
Duels
24Bayron DuarteD · 74'
6.6
More stats
Shots on target
Passes16%
Tackles2
Duels38%
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes18%
Tackles
Duels0%
27Daniel ParraD · 89'
🅰️ 15.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes23%
Tackles
Duels14%
Bench (10)
30Mono MartínezM · 16'
6.2
More stats
Shots on target
Passes3%
Tackles
Duels0%
26Eduardo PerezF · 1'
More stats
Shots on target
Passes1%
Tackles
Duels
18
7Iker BenitoM · 32'
🟨6.0
More stats
Shots on target
Passes11%
Tackles
Duels0%
8
29Waldo MadridM · 16'
6.7
More stats
Shots on target
Passes4%
Tackles
Duels100%
11
11M. CoronelF · 32'
6.6
More stats
Shots1/2 on target
Passes11%
Tackles
Duels0%

Toluca

6
6F. PereiraD · 90'
7.2
More stats
Shots on target
Passes46%
Tackles
Duels71%
16
16Federico ViñasF · 90'
18.3
More stats
Shots2/5 on target
Passes10%
Tackles2
Duels65%
4
4Bruno MéndezD · 85'
7.2
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes33%
Tackles2
Duels83%
2
2Diego BarbosaD · 31'
🟥5.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes11%
Tackles2
Duels67%
1
1Hugo GonzalezG · 90'
6.9
More stats
Shots on target
Passes21%
Tackles
Duels100%
10
10J. AnguloM · 74'
7.0
More stats
Shots on target
Passes24%
Tackles1
Duels56%
9
9A. Vega (C)M · 45'
🟨6.9
More stats
Shots0/2 on target
Passes11%
Tackles1
Duels67%
24
🟨6.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes16%
Tackles
Duels50%
11
11HelinhoM · 74'
18.3
More stats
Shots1/2 on target
Passes31%
Tackles1
Duels64%
25
25E. del VillarD · 90'
6.5
More stats
Shots on target
Passes19%
Tackles2
Duels60%
5
5Franco RomeroM · 90'
7.5
More stats
Shots0/1 on target
Passes45%
Tackles2
Duels75%
Bench (10)
8
8N. CastroM · 45'
🟨6.9
More stats
Shots0/3 on target
Passes27%
Tackles
Duels100%
29
29J. Diaz PriceM · 16'
6.2
More stats
Shots on target
Passes4%
Tackles
Duels0%
7
7V. GuzmanM · 13'
6.3
More stats
Shots on target
Passes1%
Tackles
Duels0%
13
13LuanD · 16'
6.2
More stats
Shots on target
Passes1%
Tackles
Duels
15
17
6.6
More stats
Shots on target
Passes10%
Tackles2
Duels100%

More Liga MX predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Club Queretaro vs Toluca?+

Our AI model favors Toluca to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 25%, Club Queretaro 25%).

What time does Club Queretaro vs Toluca kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 3:10 AM (your local time, based on your device).