Club Queretaro vs Toluca
Match events
- 19'A. Vega
- 30'Card upgrade — Diego Barbosa
- 30'Diego Barbosa
- 45+2'Penalty confirmed — Ali Ávila
- 45+5'Fernando Arce Juárez
- 45+6'Ali Ávila (Ali Ávila)
- 46'A. Vega (N. Castro)
- 46'Fernando Arce Juárez (B. A. Garcia Caprizo)
- 55'Ali Ávila
- 58'Alejandro Alcala (M. Coronel)
- 58'Paulo Victor (Iker Benito)
- 65'Helinho
- 74'N. Castro
- 74'Bayron Duarte (Waldo Madrid)
- 74'Carlo Adriano García (Mono Martínez)
- 74'Helinho (Luan)
- 74'J. Angulo (J. Diaz Price)
- 79'Santiago Homenchenko (Daniel Parra)
- 81'Iker Benito
- 85'Bruno Méndez (V. Guzman)
- 89'Santiago Homenchenko
- 90+3'Daniel Parra (Eduardo Perez)
- 90'Federico Viñas
Lineups
- 0.4
- Goals/game
- 1.4
- 1.3
- Conceded/game
- 1.1
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Analysis suggests that Toluca may have the upper hand due to their better scoring average and league standing. Queretaro's recent form indicates struggles in front of goal, which could limit their chances against a Toluca side that has performed well away from home. Historically, matches between these teams have been competitive, but the data leans towards an away victory.
- Toluca ranked 5th in the league compared to Queretaro's 7th
- Toluca has a stronger recent scoring average at 1.4 goals per game
- Queretaro's recent form shows they only scored 0.4 goals per game in the last 10 matches
- The last 5 head-to-head matches have been closely contested with 2 draws and 3 wins split evenly between both teams.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Toluca
- Poor recent formClub Queretaro
Club Queretaro have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L - Sharper attackToluca
Toluca are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game - Historical edgeToluca
Toluca have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins - Tighter defenseToluca
Toluca are conceding just 1.1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Toluca at 50% — final result was Toluca win, Club Queretaro 1-2 Toluca.
Predicted score was 1-2.
This was a high confidence pick (87/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Club Queretaro have averaged 0.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Toluca have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | WWL | |
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 | DWLW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Club Queretaro
Toluca
Match statistics
Player ratings
- 1Federico ViñasToluca⚽ 18.3
- 2HelinhoToluca⚽ 18.3
- 3Santiago HomenchenkoClub Queretaro⚽ 1🟨8.0
- 4Franco RomeroToluca7.5
- 5F. PereiraToluca7.2
- 6Bruno MéndezToluca7.2
Box score
Club Queretaro
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Bench (10)
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Toluca
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Bench (10)
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More Liga MX predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Club Queretaro vs Toluca?+
Our AI model favors Toluca to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 25%, Club Queretaro 25%).
What time does Club Queretaro vs Toluca kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 3:10 AM (your local time, based on your device).



















