Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Score
| Team | Goals | Behinds | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 Collingwood Magpies | 15 | 6 | 96 |
 Brisbane Lions | 25 | 9 | 159 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 71-78
The analysis indicates that the Brisbane Lions are currently in stronger form, averaging 92.7 points scored in their last 10 matches compared to Collingwood's average of 72.5. Historically, Brisbane has had the upper hand in recent encounters, winning 3 of the last 5 matchups against Collingwood. With Collingwood also struggling defensively by conceding nearly 79 points per game, the data suggests Brisbane has a favorable chance to secure the win.
- Brisbane Lions averaging 92.7 points scored over last 10 matches
- Collingwood Magpies conceded 78.9 points per game in recent form
- Brisbane Lions won 3 out of last 5 matches against Collingwood
- Collingwood Magpies only won 1 of their last 5 matches
Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Brisbane Lions
- Tighter defenseBrisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions are conceding just 82 points per game over their recent matches.
82/game conceded - Poor recent formCollingwood Magpies
Collingwood Magpies have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L - Good recent formBrisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Historical edgeBrisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 37/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Brisbane Lions at 40% — final result was Brisbane Lions win, Collingwood Magpies 96-159 Brisbane Lions.
Predicted score was 71-78.
The model itself only flagged this as a low confidence pick (37/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Match trends
- Collingwood Magpies have averaged 96.7 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Brisbane Lions have averaged 118.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Collingwood Magpies are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Brisbane Lions.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Ladder
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fremantle Dockers | 23 | 19 | 0 | 4 | +620 | 76 | WLWW |
| 2 |  Sydney Swans | 23 | 18 | 0 | 5 | +674 | 72 | WWWW |
| 3 | Brisbane Lions | 23 | 16 | 0 | 7 | +445 | 64 | WWLW |
| 4 |  Hawthorn Hawks | 23 | 15 | 2 | 6 | +379 | 64 | DLWW |
| 5 |  Geelong Cats | 23 | 15 | 0 | 8 | +430 | 60 | WWWW |
| 6 |  Adelaide Crows | 23 | 15 | 0 | 8 | +320 | 60 | LWWL |
| 7 |  Melbourne Demons | 23 | 15 | 0 | 8 | +202 | 60 | WWWL |
| 8 |  Western Bulldogs | 23 | 13 | 1 | 9 | -91 | 54 | DLLW |
| 9 | Collingwood Magpies | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | +47 | 52 | DWLW |
| 10 |  Carlton Blues | 23 | 12 | 1 | 10 | +29 | 50 | DWWW |
| 11 |  St Kilda Saints | 23 | 10 | 0 | 13 | +56 | 40 | WLLW |
| 12 |  Greater Western Sydney Giants | 23 | 10 | 0 | 13 | -22 | 40 | WLWL |
| 13 |  Gold Coast Suns | 23 | 9 | 0 | 14 | -117 | 36 | LWLL |
| 14 |  North Melbourne Kangaroos | 23 | 9 | 0 | 14 | -243 | 36 | LWLL |
| 15 |  Port Adelaide Power | 23 | 7 | 0 | 16 | -245 | 28 | LLLL |
| 16 |  West Coast Eagles | 23 | 4 | 0 | 19 | -718 | 16 | LLLL |
| 17 |  Richmond Tigers | 23 | 3 | 0 | 20 | -890 | 12 | LLWL |
| 18 |  Essendon Bombers | 23 | 2 | 0 | 21 | -876 | 8 | LLLL |
More AFL Premiership predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions?+
Our AI model favors Brisbane Lions to win, with a 40% probability (Collingwood Magpies 60%).
What time does Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions start?+
First bounce is at Aug 21, 2026, 9:40 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the final score in Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions?+
Collingwood Magpies: 15.6 (96). Brisbane Lions: 25.9 (159).