Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera División

Primera División· Regular Season - 20

Concepción

1–1Full-time

Coquimbo Unido

WDDLWWGoals 14-168th in league

WWDDLLGoals 15-99th in league

Home5W 3D 3L(16-12)

Away4W 2D 4L(14-15)

Match events

7'Alejandro Camargo
26'Cristián Zavala
46'Diego Acosta (C. Escobar)
46'Dilan Varas (Cristian Riquelme)
46'Joaquín Montecinos (Matias Cavalleri)
48'F. Pons
57'F. Pons (N. Johansen)
57'P. Rodriguez (Guido Vadalá)
59'Lukas Soza
62'Ariel Cáceres (Matias Cavalleri)
64'Jorge Henríquez (Aldrix Jara)
68'Cristián Zavala (Alejandro Azócar)
70'Juan Cornejo
75'Yonathan Rodríguez
76'Salvador Cordero
76'B. Chandia (Sebastián Cabrera)
85'Yonathan Rodríguez (F. Martínez)
87'F. Martínez

Lineups

Concepción

Coquimbo Unido

4-4-24-2-3-1

Patricio AlmendraCoach

Hernan Caputto

Bench (8)

Bench (9)

AI match analysis

Concepción win

29%

Draw

29%

Coquimbo Unido win

42%

53.8%BTTS

50.6%Over 2.5

21.2%Concepción clean sheet

31.7%Coquimbo Unido clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The numbers favor Coquimbo Unido based on recent form, as they have drawn their last three matches while Concepción, despite a strong home record, has shown vulnerability with a mixed recent performance. Historically, Concepción has struggled to consistently score, averaging 1.4 goals per game but conceding 1.6. With Coquimbo's solid defense and ability to get results away, they may be positioned to edge this matchup.

Concepción on a five-match winning streak
Coquimbo Unido has drawn three of their last five matches
Concepción has a strong home record with 5 wins this season

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

71/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Coquimbo Unido

Good recent formConcepción
Concepción have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Tighter defenseCoquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido are conceding just 0.9 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.9/game conceded
Strong home recordConcepción
Concepción have won 5 of their last 11 home matches.
5/11 home wins
Strong away recordCoquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido have won 4 of their last 10 away matches.
4/10 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 42% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Coquimbo Unido at 42% — final result was a draw, Concepción 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Coquimbo Unido2.22market 45.1% · model 42%

Draw ✓3.14market 31.8% · model 29%

Concepción3.16market 31.7% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Concepción have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Coquimbo Unido have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Concepción3.16▲best 3.35

Draw3.14▼best 3.36

Coquimbo Unido2.22▼best 2.32

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.17▲best 2.28

Under 2.51.64▼best 1.73

Both teams to score

Yes1.87▲best 1.95

No1.82▼best 1.95

Double chance

Concepción/Draw1.61▲best 1.65

Concepción/Coquimbo Unido1.30best 1.36

Draw/Coquimbo Unido1.31▼best 1.36

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.44▲best 1.44

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.62▼best 2.62

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.30▲best 1.30

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.40▼best 3.40

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Concepción3.16▲ 0.18

Draw3.14▼ 0.06

Coquimbo Unido2.22

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Concepción win-0.1pp

AI

29%

Market

29.1%

Draw-0.3pp

AI

29%

Market

29.3%

Coquimbo Unido win+0.5pp

AI

42%

Market

41.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.