Connecticut Sun W vs Atlanta Dream W

NBA W
LWLLPts 751-8977th in Eastern Conference · 9-27
WWWLPts 928-8541st in Eastern Conference · 24-13
Home8W 12L(1576-1678)
Away15W 5L(1719-1531)

Mohegan Sun Arena

Value found

+1.6% edge

Atlanta Dream W win

1.18AI fair odds
1.20Bookmaker odds
+1.6%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 164 total points vs the market's 173.5 line — leans under by 9.5 points.

Today
Tip-off
In Progress
Final

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Connecticut Sun W
1715191869
Atlanta Dream W
28233023104

AI match analysis

Connecticut Sun W win
15%
Atlanta Dream W win
85%

Predicted score: 75-89

Data suggests that the Atlanta Dream W holds a significant advantage over the Connecticut Sun W, having won four of the last five encounters between the teams. The Connecticut Sun W's average of 77.2 points scored versus 85 conceded in their last ten matches indicates a struggling defense. In contrast, the Atlanta Dream W has been more productive offensively, averaging 89 points in the same timeframe.

  • Atlanta Dream W won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches
  • Connecticut Sun W has averaged 77.2 points scored and 85 points conceded in last 10 matches
  • Atlanta Dream W averaged 89 points scored in their last 10 matches
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
80/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Atlanta Dream W

  • Historical edgeAtlanta Dream W

    Atlanta Dream W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    4/5 H2H wins
  • Poor recent formConnecticut Sun W

    Connecticut Sun W have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 0D 4L
  • Good recent formAtlanta Dream W

    Atlanta Dream W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Atlanta Dream W at 85% — final result was Atlanta Dream W win, Connecticut Sun W 69-104 Atlanta Dream W.

Predicted score was 75-89.

This was a high confidence pick (80/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Atlanta Dream W1.20market 83.7% · model 85%
Connecticut Sun W4.57market 21.9% · model 15%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Connecticut Sun W have averaged 75.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Atlanta Dream W have averaged 92.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Connecticut Sun W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Atlanta Dream W.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Connecticut Sun W4.57best 5.20AI 15%
Atlanta Dream W1.20best 1.22AI 85%

Point spread

LineConnecticut Sun WAtlanta Dream W
+82.141.64
+8.52.081.69
+92.031.76
+9.51.951.81
+101.921.88
+10.51.831.93
+111.742.02
+11.51.702.06

Total points

LineOverUnder
1721.742.04
172.51.781.97
1731.811.94
173.51.861.89
1741.891.84
174.51.931.81
1751.961.78
175.52.021.73

Double chance

Draw/Away1.15
Home/Draw3.60

Average price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Connecticut Sun W4.57 0.13
Atlanta Dream W1.20
12 Aug13 Aug

Model vs market

Connecticut Sun W win-5.8pp
AI
15%
Market
20.8%
Atlanta Dream W win+5.8pp
AI
85%
Market
79.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Match statistics

%Field goal %%
40%3-point %54%
76%Free throw %89%
36Rebounds45
15Assists19
6Steals8
8Blocks9
10Turnovers12
Personal fouls

Players to watch

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Connecticut Sun W wins
4Atlanta Dream W wins
349-423Points

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
2
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
3
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
4
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
5
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
6
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
7
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
5
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
6
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
7
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
8
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
9
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
10
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
11
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
12
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
13
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
14
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
15
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
5
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
6
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
7
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
8
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018

Season comparison

78.1Points scored per game89.7
87Points allowed per game79.3
46.7%Field goal %47.3%
28.6%3-point %34.7%
77.2%Free throw %82%
31.7Rebounds per game37
18.3Assists per game22
12.8Turnovers per game10.7

Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.

More NBA W predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Connecticut Sun W vs Atlanta Dream W?+

Our AI model favors Atlanta Dream W to win, with a 85% probability (Connecticut Sun W 15%).

What time does Connecticut Sun W vs Atlanta Dream W start?+

Tip-off is at Aug 13, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the score by quarter in Connecticut Sun W vs Atlanta Dream W?+

Connecticut Sun W: 17-15-19-18. Atlanta Dream W: 28-23-30-23. Final: 69-104.