Connecticut Sun W vs Atlanta Dream W
Mohegan Sun Arena
Value found
+1.6% edgeAtlanta Dream W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 164 total points vs the market's 173.5 line — leans under by 9.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 69 | |
| 28 | 23 | 30 | 23 | 104 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 75-89
Data suggests that the Atlanta Dream W holds a significant advantage over the Connecticut Sun W, having won four of the last five encounters between the teams. The Connecticut Sun W's average of 77.2 points scored versus 85 conceded in their last ten matches indicates a struggling defense. In contrast, the Atlanta Dream W has been more productive offensively, averaging 89 points in the same timeframe.
- Atlanta Dream W won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches
- Connecticut Sun W has averaged 77.2 points scored and 85 points conceded in last 10 matches
- Atlanta Dream W averaged 89 points scored in their last 10 matches
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Atlanta Dream W
- Historical edgeAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Poor recent formConnecticut Sun W
Connecticut Sun W have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Good recent formAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Atlanta Dream W at 85% — final result was Atlanta Dream W win, Connecticut Sun W 69-104 Atlanta Dream W.
Predicted score was 75-89.
This was a high confidence pick (80/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Connecticut Sun W have averaged 75.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Atlanta Dream W have averaged 92.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Connecticut Sun W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Atlanta Dream W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Connecticut Sun W | Atlanta Dream W |
|---|---|---|
| +8 | 2.14▲ | 1.64▼ |
| +8.5 | 2.08▲ | 1.69 |
| +9 | 2.03▲ | 1.76 |
| +9.5 | 1.95▲ | 1.81▼ |
| +10 | 1.92▲ | 1.88 |
| +10.5 | 1.83▼ | 1.93 |
| +11 | 1.74 | 2.02▲ |
| +11.5 | 1.70▼ | 2.06 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 172 | 1.74▲ | 2.04▼ |
| 172.5 | 1.78▲ | 1.97▼ |
| 173 | 1.81▲ | 1.94▼ |
| 173.5 | 1.86▲ | 1.89▼ |
| 174 | 1.89▲ | 1.84▼ |
| 174.5 | 1.93▲ | 1.81▼ |
| 175 | 1.96▲ | 1.78▼ |
| 175.5 | 2.02▲ | 1.73▼ |
Double chance
Average price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 2 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 7 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 6 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 9 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 10 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 11 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 12 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 13 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 14 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 15 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 5 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Connecticut Sun W vs Atlanta Dream W?+
Our AI model favors Atlanta Dream W to win, with a 85% probability (Connecticut Sun W 15%).
What time does Connecticut Sun W vs Atlanta Dream W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 13, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Connecticut Sun W vs Atlanta Dream W?+
Connecticut Sun W: 17-15-19-18. Atlanta Dream W: 28-23-30-23. Final: 69-104.

