Cruz Azul vs Atlas — Liga MX

Liga MX· Apertura - 5

Cruz Azul

0–2Full-time

Atlas

LWWWLLGoals 10-186th in league

DLLLWWGoals 12-182nd in league

Home1W 0D 1L(4-4)

Away3W 0D 0L(6-2)

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City · Capacity 87,000 · grass · Referee: G. Pacheco Larios

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

31'Edgar Zaldívar (Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes)
45'F. Monzon
46'Andres Montaño (A. Garcia)
46'C. Ebere (Luka Romero)
63'L. Esteves
68'Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes (V. H. Rios De Alba)
69'Jeremy Márquez (R. Gonzalez)
69'Arturo González (Gustavo Ferrareis)
75'Carlos Rodriguez (Gabriel Fernández)
78'Edgar Zaldívar (S. Hernandez)
85'Omar Campos (I. Silva)
89'Milton Valenzuela (Jorge Rodríguez)
90'L. Esteves (J. Serrato)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Cruz AzulAtlas

1.0
Goals/game: 1.2; 1.8
Conceded/game: 1.8

AI match analysis

Cruz Azul win

58%

Draw

24%

Atlas win

18%

58.5%BTTS

55.4%Over 2.5

22.3%Cruz Azul clean sheet

24.7%Atlas clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that Cruz Azul holds a slight edge in this matchup given their current standing and home advantage, despite a mixed recent form. Atlas, however, maintains a strong away performance this season, undefeated on the road. The historical encounters have been competitive, indicating a tight match could be expected.

Cruz Azul has won 1 out of 2 home matches this season
Atlas has a perfect away record with 2 wins
In their last 5 head-to-head matches, the teams are evenly matched with no clear dominant side

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

94/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Cruz Azul

Strong home recordCruz Azul
Cruz Azul have won 1 of their last 2 home matches.
1/2 home wins
Strong away recordAtlas
Atlas have won 3 of their last 3 away matches.
3/3 away wins
Higher league positionAtlas
Atlas sit 4 places above Cruz Azul in the table.
#2 vs #6
Good recent formCruz Azul
Cruz Azul have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Cruz Azul at 58% — final result was Atlas win, Cruz Azul 0-2 Atlas.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (94/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Cruz Azul1.56market 64.1% · model 58%

Draw3.99market 25% · model 24%

Atlas ✓5.50market 18.2% · model 18%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Cruz Azul have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Atlas have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Cruz Azul wins

2Draws

3Atlas wins

9-10Goals

Cruz Azul

2–2Apr 22, 2024, 12:00 AM

Atlas

2–0Jul 2, 2023, 3:10 AM

Cruz Azul

0–1May 6, 2023, 11:00 PM

Atlas

Cruz Azul

1–0Feb 23, 2023, 2:05 AM

Atlas

3–2Jul 16, 2022, 10:00 PM

Cruz Azul

1–0Apr 3, 2022, 11:00 PM

Atlas

0–0Oct 20, 2021, 2:05 AM

Cruz Azul

3–2Mar 21, 2021, 1:00 AM

Atlas

Odds comparison

Match winner

Cruz Azul1.56▲best 1.65

Draw3.99▼best 4.20

Atlas5.50▼best 6.40

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.76▲best 1.83

Under 2.52.02▼best 2.08

Both teams to score

Yes1.79▼best 1.85

No1.91▲best 1.98

Double chance

Cruz Azul/Draw1.13▲best 1.18

Cruz Azul/Atlas1.22▲best 1.25

Draw/Atlas2.34▼best 2.55

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.11▲best 1.12

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.61▼best 1.65

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.17best 2.25

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.88▼best 6.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Cruz Azul1.56▲ 0.09

Draw3.99▼ 0.01

Atlas5.50▼ 0.47

20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Cruz Azul win-1.7pp

58%

Market

59.7%

Draw+0.7pp

24%

Market

23.3%

Atlas win+1.1pp

18%

Market

16.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.