CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv — Premier League

Premier League· Regular Season - 5

CSKA Moscow

3–2Full-time

Lokomotiv

DDWDWLGoals 9-93rd in league

DWLDDLGoals 6-914th in league

Home3W 2D 0L(7-4)

Away0W 1D 2L(4-6)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

22'A. Silyanov (Z. Bakaev)
29'L. Gondou (M. Kislyak)
45+2'G. Nyamsi
46'R. Myalkovskiy (V. Rakov)
50'I. Oblyakov
50'K. Danilov
65'A. Kovalenko (D. Godyaev)
68'Matheus Alves (Milan Gajić)
70'Z. Bakaev (S. Pinyaev)
71'A. Rudenko (N. Saltykov)
71'Matheus Alves (D. Barinov)
74'K. Danilov
75'S. Pinyaev (V. Rakov)
75'M. Popovic (Henrique Carmo)
75'César Montes (G. Dzhikiya)
81'L. Gondou
82'L. Gondou (T. Musaev)
82'K. Glebov (D. Kozlov)
82'D. Barinov (D. Abdulkadyrov)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

CSKA MoscowLokomotiv

0.9
Goals/game: 0.6; 0.9
Conceded/game: 0.9

AI match analysis

CSKA Moscow win

50%

Draw

26%

Lokomotiv win

24%

31.3%BTTS

23%Over 2.5

47.2%CSKA Moscow clean sheet

40.7%Lokomotiv clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

Data suggests CSKA Moscow is in a stronger position heading into this match, evidenced by their unbeaten home record and recent form of three wins in their last five games. In contrast, Lokomotiv has struggled on the road, failing to secure a victory in both their away matches this season. Historically, CSKA Moscow has had the upper hand in head-to-head matches, winning three of the last five encounters against Lokomotiv.

CSKA Moscow unbeaten at home this season (2W 2D)
Lokomotiv has not won away this season (0W 1D 1L)
Recent form favors CSKA Moscow with 3 wins in last 5 matches
CSKA Moscow has historically performed well against Lokomotiv, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

87/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors CSKA Moscow

Strong home recordCSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow have won 3 of their last 5 home matches.
3/5 home wins
Weak away recordLokomotiv
Lokomotiv have won 0 of their last 3 away matches.
0/3 away wins
Higher league positionCSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow sit 11 places above Lokomotiv in the table.
#3 vs #14
Good recent formCSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked CSKA Moscow at 50% — final result was CSKA Moscow win, CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (87/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

CSKA Moscow ✓1.96market 51.1% · model 50%

Draw3.63market 27.5% · model 26%

Lokomotiv3.78market 26.5% · model 24%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

CSKA Moscow have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Lokomotiv have averaged 0.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3CSKA Moscow wins

3Draws

2Lokomotiv wins

14-12Goals

CSKA Moscow

3–1May 17, 2026, 3:00 PM

Lokomotiv

3–0Oct 18, 2025, 4:45 PM

CSKA Moscow

Lokomotiv

0–0Oct 1, 2025, 5:30 PM

CSKA Moscow

2–1Jul 30, 2025, 3:30 PM

Lokomotiv

2–2May 19, 2025, 5:30 PM

CSKA Moscow

0–1Aug 18, 2024, 2:30 PM

Lokomotiv

3–3Apr 13, 2024, 4:30 PM

CSKA Moscow

4–1Aug 5, 2023, 5:00 PM

Lokomotiv

Odds comparison

Match winner

CSKA Moscow1.96▼best 2.01

Draw3.63▲best 3.84

Lokomotiv3.78▲best 4.08

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.71▼best 1.77

Under 2.52.17▲best 2.22

Both teams to score

Yes1.59▲best 1.60

No2.22▼best 2.25

Double chance

CSKA Moscow/Draw1.26▼best 1.28

CSKA Moscow/Lokomotiv1.27best 1.31

Draw/Lokomotiv1.88▲best 1.94

Average and best price across 6 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

CSKA Moscow1.96▼ 0.01

Draw3.63▼ 0.01

Lokomotiv3.78▲ 0.15

19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

CSKA Moscow win+1.4pp

50%

Market

48.6%

Draw-0.2pp

26%

Market

26.2%

Lokomotiv win-1.2pp

24%

Market

25.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.