Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo
Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo · Capacity 18,000 · grass · Referee: A. M. Matonte Cabrera
Match events
- 17'R. Bentancourt
- 31'T. A. Pozzo
- 40'R. Bentancourt
- 44'A. Cayetano
- 46'B. Montenegro (J. Neris)
- 46'N. Wunsch (L. Navarro)
- 47'L. Acosta
- 61'F. Martínez (D. Romero)
- 63'T. A. Pozzo
- 73'N. Medina (E. Cuello)
- 73'G. Barrios (L. de los Santos)
- 73'N. Medina (L. de los Santos)
- 75'M. Rabunal
- 76'R. Machado (Facundo Barcelo)
- 76'R. Bentancourt (T. Brizuela)
- 79'K. Lewis
- 81'Facundo Barcelo
- 86'E. Elizalde
- 87'L. Acosta (G. de Mello)
- 87'K. Lewis (S. Laquidain)
- 90+1'Facundo Barcelo
- 90'E. Cuello
- 90'M. Rabunal (A. Torterolo)
- 0.5
- Goals/game
- 0.9
- 1.0
- Conceded/game
- 1.3
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 0-1
Data suggests that Defensor Sporting is struggling significantly, having lost their last five fixtures without scoring. In contrast, Liverpool Montevideo has managed to secure points in a more favorable manner, winning two of their previous five matches. While the head-to-head record indicates parity, the current form favors Liverpool for a potential edge in this upcoming match.
- Defensor Sporting has lost 5 of their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool Montevideo has won 2 of their last 5 matches, showing better recent form.
- Historically, matches between these teams have been closely contested, with recent encounters showing mixed results.
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Defensor Sporting
- Poor recent formDefensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
0W 2D 3L - Poor recent formLiverpool Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Tighter defenseDefensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1/game conceded - Higher league positionLiverpool Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo sit 6 places above Defensor Sporting in the table.
#1 vs #7
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 35% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Defensor Sporting at 35% — final result was Liverpool Montevideo win, Defensor Sporting 0-4 Liverpool Montevideo.
Predicted score was 0-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Defensor Sporting have averaged 0.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Liverpool Montevideo have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor SportingDefensor SportingLiverpool MontevideoDefensor SportingLiverpool MontevideoDefensor SportingLiverpool MontevideoLiverpool MontevideoDefensor SportingLiverpool MontevideoDefensor SportingDefensor SportingLiverpool MontevideoLiverpool MontevideoDefensor SportingOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 62 | 24 | 17 | 21 | -2 | 89 | LLWL |
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
A. M. Matonte Cabrera
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
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Deportivo MaldonadoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?+
Our AI model favors Defensor Sporting to win, with a 35% probability (Draw 31%, Liverpool Montevideo 34%).
Where is Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo played?+
The match is played at Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo (capacity 18,000).
What time does Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 6:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).