Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings — NFL

NFL· Week 3

Denver Broncos

34–6Full-time

Minnesota Vikings

WLWLLWPoints 220-195

LLWWLLPoints 148-158

Home16W 0D 4L(533-344)

Away11W 0D 9L(355-469)

Empower Field at Mile High

Value found

+12.9% edge

Minnesota Vikings win

2.22AI fair odds

2.51Bookmaker odds

+12.9%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Kickoff

In Progress

Final

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Denver Broncos	10	10	0	14	34
Minnesota Vikings	0	6	0	0	6

AI match analysis

Denver Broncos win

45%

Draw

10%

Minnesota Vikings win

45%

Predicted score: 21-19

Data suggests a competitive match between the Broncos and Vikings, as both teams have shown variability in their recent performances. The Broncos average 21 points scored per game, compared to the Vikings' 15.9. Historically, the Broncos hold an edge in their recent head-to-head matchups, winning three of the last five encounters. However, the Vikings have displayed stronger form lately, which could make this matchup tighter than expected.

Broncos scored 21 points per game in their last 10 matches
Vikings scored 15.9 points per game in their last 10 matches
Broncos won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Vikings
Vikings have a better recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches

AI ConfidenceLow confidence

30/100

Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Denver Broncos

Tighter defenseMinnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings are conceding just 15.8 points per game over their recent matches.
15.8/game conceded
Poor recent formDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Good recent formMinnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Historical edgeDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 30/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 45% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Denver Broncos at 45% — final result was Denver Broncos win, Denver Broncos 34-6 Minnesota Vikings.

Predicted score was 21-19.

The model itself only flagged this as a low confidence pick (30/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Denver Broncos ✓1.53market 65.4% · model 45%

Minnesota Vikings2.51market 39.9% · model 45%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Denver Broncos have averaged 22 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Minnesota Vikings have averaged 14.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Denver Broncos are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Minnesota Vikings.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Denver Broncos1.53▼best 1.60AI 45%

Minnesota Vikings2.51▲best 2.64AI 45%

Point spread

Line	Denver Broncos	Minnesota Vikings
-8	2.05	1.67
-7	1.93	1.77
-6.5	1.97▲	1.82▼
-5.5	1.88	1.89
-4.5	1.89	1.85
-4	1.99▲	1.80▼
-3.5	1.92▲	1.86▼
-3	1.77	1.93

Total points

Line	Over	Under
36	1.70	2.05
37	1.80	1.91
37.5	1.88▼	1.89
38	1.94	1.84
38.5	1.89	1.84
39	2.00	1.79
39.5	1.94	1.83
40	2.05	1.67

Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Denver Broncos1.53

Minnesota Vikings2.51▲ 0.01

28 Aug – 28 Aug

Model vs market

Denver Broncos win-17.1pp

45%

Market

62.1%

Minnesota Vikings win+7.1pp

45%

Market

37.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.