Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol — Primera División

Primera División· Clausura - 3

Deportivo Maldonado

0–0Full-time

Penarol

DLWLDWGoals 10-122nd in league

LWWLWWGoals 14-81st in league

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

32'L. Ferreira
34'M. Arezo
46'A. Hernández (L. Umpierrez)
46'L. Ferreira (B. Barboza)
54'W. Aguerre
71'Eric Remedi (Diego Laxalt)
71'G. Larrazabal (Camilo Mayada)
78'F. Tealde (J. Fernández)
79'H. Menosse
85'S. Cartagena (L. Núñez)
85'S. Ramírez (G. Sosa)
85'R. César (C. Bolzan)
88'Javier Cabrera (S. Muhlethaler)
88'M. Arezo (F. Batista)
89'E. Darias
90+2'Christian Tabó

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Deportivo MaldonadoPenarol

1.0
Goals/game: 1.4; 1.2
Conceded/game: 0.8

AI match analysis

Deportivo Maldonado win

23.74%

Draw

27.56%

Penarol win

48.7%

43.2%BTTS

37.7%Over 2.5

27.3%Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet

40.7%Penarol clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The recent form suggests that Penarol is a strong contender for this match, having won 4 of their last 5 games. In contrast, Deportivo Maldonado has struggled defensively with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per game in their last 10 outings. Historical head-to-head results also favor Penarol, further backing their chances.

Penarol is unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo Maldonado has conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game in their last 10 matches.
Penarol has a superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

84/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Penarol

Historical edgePenarol
Penarol have won 4 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
4/7 H2H wins
Sharper attackPenarol
Penarol are averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game
Good recent formPenarol
Penarol have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Tighter defensePenarol
Penarol are conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.8/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Penarol at 48.7% — final result was a draw, Deportivo Maldonado 0-0 Penarol.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (84/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Penarol1.88market 53.2% · model 48.7%

Draw ✓3.26market 30.7% · model 27.56%

Deportivo Maldonado3.89market 25.7% · model 23.74%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Deportivo Maldonado have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Penarol have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 7 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

1Deportivo Maldonado wins

2Draws

4Penarol wins

7-13Goals

Penarol

1–1Jul 6, 2024, 6:30 PM

Deportivo Maldonado

1–2Apr 7, 2024, 9:00 PM

Penarol

2–1Mar 5, 2023, 8:00 PM

Deportivo Maldonado

1–3Jun 19, 2022, 8:30 PM

Penarol

1–1Mar 19, 2022, 9:00 PM

Deportivo Maldonado

Penarol

4–0Jun 20, 2021, 6:45 PM

Deportivo Maldonado

2–0Aug 19, 2020, 6:00 PM

Penarol

Odds comparison

Match winner

Deportivo Maldonado3.89▼best 4.20

Draw3.26▲best 3.45

Penarol1.88▲best 1.97

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.14▼best 2.20

Under 2.51.65▲best 1.67

Both teams to score

Yes1.95▼best 2.02

No1.75▲best 1.78

Double chance

Deportivo Maldonado/Draw1.81▼best 1.87

Deportivo Maldonado/Penarol1.28▲best 1.33

Draw/Penarol1.20best 1.28

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.25▲best 2.25

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.57▼best 1.57

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22best 1.22

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.00best 4.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Deportivo Maldonado3.89▼ 0.32

Draw3.26▼ 0.04

Penarol1.88▲ 0.07

19 Aug – 21 Aug

Model vs market

Deportivo Maldonado win+0.3pp

23.74%

Market

23.4%

Draw-0.4pp

27.56%

Market

28%

Penarol win+0.2pp

48.7%

Market

48.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.