Derby vs Cardiff
Pride Park Stadium, Derby · Capacity 33,597 · grass · Referee: R. Ricardo
Match events
- 9'Corey Blackett-Taylor
- 19'C. Ashford (Ronan Kpakio)
- 26'Carlton Morris (B. Clark)
- 39'Yousef Salech (Rubin Colwill)
- 49'B. Clark
- 53'Rubin Colwill
- 53'Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson
- 55'O. Fraulo
- 59'C. Ashford (Christopher Willock)
- 59'Rubin Colwill (D. Turnbull)
- 60'Lewis Travis
- 64'O. Fraulo (Ryan Hedges)
- 65'Corey Blackett-Taylor (Rhian Brewster)
- 71'Ollie·Tanner (Isaak Davies)
- 71'Jack Moylan (Joel Colwill)
- 80'max johnston
- 85'Dion Sanderson
- 88'max johnston (R. Nyambe)
- 88'Carlton Morris (Lars-Jørgen Salvesen)
- 1.3
- Goals/game
- 2.2
- 1.8
- Conceded/game
- 1.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The data suggests a competitive match as Cardiff has a good recent head-to-head record against Derby, winning 2 of their last 3 encounters. Derby has struggled early this season, losing their opening match and facing consistency issues in recent form. While Cardiff managed to secure a draw in their first match, their scoring average indicates they can pose a threat. The predicted score reflects a likely tight affair, with both sides having inconsistent defenses.
- Cardiff is unbeaten in their last 5 meetings against Derby.
- Derby's recent form shows they have lost 4 out of their last 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored an average of 2.1 goals per game over their last 10 matches.
- Both teams have struggled in their first match of the season, limiting expectations.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Derby
- Poor recent formDerby
Derby have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Historical edgeCardiff
Cardiff have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins - Sharper attackCardiff
Cardiff are averaging 2.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
2.2/game - Higher league positionCardiff
Cardiff sit 6 places above Derby in the table.
#13 vs #19
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Derby at 48% — final result was a draw, Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Predicted score was 1-1.
This was a high confidence pick (84/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Derby have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Cardiff have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
R. Ricardo
Based on 8 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Derby
Cardiff
More Championship predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Derby vs Cardiff?+
Our AI model favors Derby to win, with a 48% probability (Draw 27%, Cardiff 25%).
Where is Derby vs Cardiff played?+
The match is played at Pride Park Stadium, Derby (capacity 33,597).
What time does Derby vs Cardiff kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 2:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).