Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders
Ford Field
Value found
+1.5% edgeDetroit Lions win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
 Washington Commanders | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 26-21
Data suggests that the Detroit Lions, despite some recent inconsistent performances, have a slightly better head-to-head record against the Washington Commanders. The Lions have been more potent offensively, averaging 25.6 points scored in their recent form, while the Commanders have struggled defensively, allowing an average of 26 points in their last 10 matches. Given these trends, the numbers favor the home team to secure a victory.
- Detroit Lions have scored an average of 25.6 points in their last 10 matches
- Washington Commanders have conceded an average of 26 points in their last 10 matches
- Detroit Lions won 3 of the last 5 matchups against Washington Commanders
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Detroit Lions
- Good recent formDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formWashington Commanders
Washington Commanders have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Tighter defenseDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions are conceding just 24.2 points per game over their recent matches.
24.2/game conceded - Historical edgeDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Detroit Lions at 57% — final result was Detroit Lions win, Detroit Lions 17-13 Washington Commanders.
Predicted score was 26-21.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Detroit Lions have averaged 24.5 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Washington Commanders have averaged 16.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Detroit Lions are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Washington Commanders.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Detroit Lions | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| -5 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| -4.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| -4 | 1.89 | 1.90 |
| -3.5 | 1.91 | 1.85 |
| -3 | 1.84 | 1.95 |
| -2.5 | 1.82 | 1.95 |
| -1.5 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
| -1 | 1.81 | 1.98 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | 1.83 | 1.95 |
| 36.5 | 1.85 | 1.91 |
| 37 | 1.87 | 1.90 |
| 37.5 | 1.92 | 1.85 |
| 38 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| 38.5 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| 39 | 1.88 | 1.91 |
| 39.5 | 2.07 | 1.73 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders?+
Our AI model favors Detroit Lions to win, with a 57% probability (Washington Commanders 43%).
What time does Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 4:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders?+
Detroit Lions: 7-0-7-3. Washington Commanders: 7-0-3-3. Final: 17-13.