Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik

UFC· UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry· Middleweight· Main Event
WLWW
16-7-0 (W-L-D)3 KO, 6 SUB
Ht 183cmWt 84kgReach 191cmStance Orthodox
Xtreme Couture
WL
9-0-1 (W-L-D)7 KO, 2 SUB
Ht 188cmWt 84kgReach 202cmStance Orthodox
MMA Masters

Value found

+90.5% edge

Dustin Stoltzfus win

2.86AI fair odds
5.44Bookmaker odds
+90.5%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Dustin Stoltzfus win
35%
Mansur Abdul-Malik win
65%

The data suggests a competitive matchup, leaning towards Mansur Abdul-Malik as the favored fighter. Stoltzfus's submission skills could play a critical role, but Abdul-Malik's unbeaten streak and striking power, demonstrated by his KO/TKO finishes, point to a likely edge in this contest. Overall, the numbers favor Abdul-Malik, reflecting his recent fight success and reach advantage.

  • Dustin Stoltzfus has a higher submission win rate, finishing 6 of 16 wins by submission compared to Mansur Abdul-Malik's 2 submissions.
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik has a perfect record of 9-0-1, showcasing strong performance consistency with 7 wins by KO/TKO.
  • Abdul-Malik has a notable reach advantage of 11cm over Stoltzfus, potentially impacting striking exchanges.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
80/100

Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two fighters is decisive, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Mansur Abdul-Malik

  • More experiencedDustin Stoltzfus

    Dustin Stoltzfus has fought 23 professional fights, 13 more than their opponent tonight.

    23 pro fights
  • Reach advantageMansur Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik has a 11cm reach advantage over their opponent, a real edge in striking exchanges at range.

    202cm reach
  • Superior career recordMansur Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik carries a 9-0-1 professional record, a 90% win rate.

    9-0-1
  • High finishing rateMansur Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik has finished 9 of 9 career wins by knockout or submission, a 100% finish rate.

    100% finish rate

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Dustin Stoltzfus5.44best 5.97AI 35%
Mansur Abdul-Malik1.14best 1.17AI 65%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Dustin Stoltzfus5.44 0.41
Mansur Abdul-Malik1.14 0.02
12 Aug14 Aug

Model vs market

Dustin Stoltzfus win+17.6pp
AI
35%
Market
17.4%
Mansur Abdul-Malik win-17.6pp
AI
65%
Market
82.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

More UFC predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik?+

Our AI model favors Mansur Abdul-Malik to win, with a 65% probability (Dustin Stoltzfus 35%).

What time does Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik start?+

This fight took place on Aug 16, 2026, 1:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Dustin Stoltzfus and Mansur Abdul-Malik?+

Dustin Stoltzfus is 16-7-0 (W-L-D). Mansur Abdul-Malik is 9-0-1 (W-L-D).