Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro

Liga Pro· Regular Season - 25

Emelec

2–1Full-time

Tecnico Universitario

LLWLDLGoals 10-1513th in league

LLLLLWGoals 11-1814th in league

Home6W 4D 3L(14-12)

Away3W 1D 9L(9-20)

Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil · Capacity 36,007 · grass · Referee: H. Arizaga

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

32'L. Klimowicz
45'L. Klimowicz (L. Fragozo)
54'W. Caicedo (C. Garcia)
63'Julian Anaya (B. Delgado)
66'L. Gomez (Ibrain Cuero)
66'L. Klimowicz (R. Saya)
71'G. Nápoli (Víctor Griffith)
71'L. Fragozo (Juan Ruiz Gómez)
73'Julian Anaya
74'S. Mena (B. Oña)
74'B. Delgado (Marco Alexander Carrasco Bonilla)
87'L. Estupiñán (A. Castillo)
88'C. Cuero (A. Cela)
88'R. Carrillo (J. Ayoví)
90+5'Liberman Torres

Lineups unavailable for this match.

EmelecTecnico Universitario

1.0
Goals/game: 1.1; 1.5
Conceded/game: 1.8

AI match analysis

Emelec win

55%

Draw

28%

Tecnico Universitario win

17%

54.8%BTTS

50.6%Over 2.5

27.3%Emelec clean sheet

24.7%Tecnico Universitario clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

Data suggests that Emelec, despite its current form, holds a better home record which may favor them in this matchup. Tecnico Universitario's away struggles, reflected in a lower scoring average, could hinder their chances. The head-to-head history also leans towards Emelec, as they have secured the victory in three of the last five encounters.

Emelec has a strong home record with 5 wins in 12 matches this season.
Tecnico Universitario is struggling away, with only 3 wins in 12 matches.
Emelec has won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Tecnico Universitario.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

89/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Emelec

Poor recent formEmelec
Emelec have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L
Poor recent formTecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L
Historical edgeEmelec
Emelec have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Strong home recordEmelec
Emelec have won 6 of their last 13 home matches.
6/13 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Emelec at 55% — final result was Emelec win, Emelec 2-1 Tecnico Universitario.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (89/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Emelec ✓1.67market 59.7% · model 55%

Draw3.23market 30.9% · model 28%

Tecnico Universitario5.27market 19% · model 17%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Emelec have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Tecnico Universitario have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Emelec wins

3Draws

1Tecnico Universitario wins

9-4Goals

Tecnico Universitario

0–1Aug 17, 2025, 8:30 PM

Emelec

0–1Apr 27, 2025, 11:00 PM

Tecnico Universitario

Emelec

3–1Sep 22, 2024, 11:00 PM

Tecnico Universitario

Emelec

0–0Sep 9, 2024, 12:00 AM

Tecnico Universitario

1–1Apr 7, 2024, 11:00 PM

Emelec

Tecnico Universitario

0–0Aug 18, 2023, 12:00 AM

Emelec

1–0Mar 20, 2023, 12:00 AM

Tecnico Universitario

Emelec

3–1Oct 22, 2022, 8:30 PM

Tecnico Universitario

Odds comparison

Match winner

Emelec1.67▼best 1.75

Draw3.23▲best 3.50

Tecnico Universitario5.27▲best 6.10

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.39▲best 2.60

Under 2.51.50▼best 1.58

Both teams to score

Yes2.20▲best 2.38

No1.56▼best 1.63

Double chance

Emelec/Draw1.13▼best 1.16

Emelec/Tecnico Universitario1.26best 1.36

Draw/Tecnico Universitario2.04▲best 2.15

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.83▼best 1.83

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.83▲best 1.83

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.00▲best 4.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.22▼best 1.22

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Emelec1.67▼ 0.04

Draw3.23▼ 0.03

Tecnico Universitario5.27▲ 0.40

13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Emelec win+0.5pp

55%

Market

54.5%

Draw-0.2pp

28%

Market

28.2%

Tecnico Universitario win-0.3pp

17%

Market

17.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.