Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue · Capacity 16,080 · grass · Referee: K. Oldhafer
Value found
+4.2% edgeErzgebirge Aue win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 6'Patrick Wimmer (N. De Cat)
- 16'Wouter Burger (Patrick Wimmer)
- 42'M. Burghardt
- 45+1'Patrick Wimmer
- 61'T. Lemperle (M. Moerstedt)
- 61'N. De Cat (Adam Daghim)
- 61'Adam Hložek (Bambasé Conté)
- 63'M. Moerstedt (Bambasé Conté)
- 68'D. Angleberger (F. Heidrich)
- 68'W. Kamm (L. Queisser)
- 68'Simon Skarlatidis (C. Pauling)
- 77'Patrick Wimmer (N. Abraha)
- 77'P. Wagner (S. Kokovas)
- 77'Vladimír Coufal (Valentin Gendrey)
- 84'M. Burghardt (L. Prosche)
Lineups
- 1.1
- Goals/game
- 1.6
- 2.2
- Conceded/game
- 2.5
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-3
The data suggests that 1899 Hoffenheim has a significant edge going into this match, as they have a higher scoring average while Erzgebirge Aue struggles defensively. Historically, both teams have had mixed recent results, but Hoffenheim's recent draws indicate they can perform against tough opponents. Overall, trends favor Hoffenheim securing a win in Aue.
- Erzgebirge Aue scored only 1.1 goals per game in their last 10 matches
- 1899 Hoffenheim has a higher scoring average of 1.6 goals per game in their last 10 matches
- Hoffenheim's recent form includes three matches without a win, but they maintained competitive scores against strong teams
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors 1899 Hoffenheim
- Sharper attack1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game - Tighter defenseErzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue are conceding just 2.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
2.2/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked 1899 Hoffenheim at 86.15% — final result was 1899 Hoffenheim win, Erzgebirge Aue 0-4 1899 Hoffenheim.
Predicted score was 1-3.
This was a high confidence pick (80/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Erzgebirge Aue have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Erzgebirge Aue
1899 Hoffenheim
More DFB Pokal predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim?+
Our AI model favors 1899 Hoffenheim to win, with a 86.15% probability (Draw 8.22%, Erzgebirge Aue 5.63%).
Where is Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim played?+
The match is played at Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue (capacity 16,080).
What time does Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 1:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).