Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza

UFC· UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry· Lightweight· Main Event
WWWW
El Gringo15-2-0 (W-L-D)7 KO, 5 SUB
Ht 178cmWt 70kgReach 175cmStance Orthodox
Kill Cliff FC
WWLL
Junior24-12-0 (W-L-D)14 KO, 1 SUB
Ht 180cmWt 66kgReach 191cmStance Orthodox
American Top

Value found

+79.8% edge

Edson Barboza win

2.94AI fair odds
5.29Bookmaker odds
+79.8%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Esteban Ribovics win
66%
Edson Barboza win
34%

The analysis suggests that Esteban Ribovics holds a favorable position against Edson Barboza due to his recent success and finishing ability. While Ribovics has demonstrated his striking efficiency with a higher knockout ratio in his career, Barboza's experience and reach advantage could influence the fight dynamics. However, Ribovics' recent victories provide a strong momentum favoring him in this matchup.

  • Ribovics has finished 7 of 15 wins by knockout, indicating strong striking power.
  • Barboza, despite a higher total career number of KOs, is fighting against a typically larger opponent at Lightweight.
  • Ribovics has a better recent fight history, winning 3 of his last 4 bouts, while Barboza has alternated wins and losses in his recent matches.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
82/100

Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two fighters is decisive, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Esteban Ribovics

  • More experiencedEdson Barboza

    Edson Barboza has fought 36 professional fights, 19 more than their opponent tonight.

    36 pro fights
  • Reach advantageEdson Barboza

    Edson Barboza has a 16cm reach advantage over their opponent, a real edge in striking exchanges at range.

    191cm reach
  • Superior career recordEsteban Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics carries a 15-2 professional record, a 88% win rate.

    15-2
  • High finishing rateEsteban Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics has finished 12 of 15 career wins by knockout or submission, a 80% finish rate.

    80% finish rate

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Esteban Ribovics1.15best 1.17AI 66%
Edson Barboza5.29best 5.94AI 34%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Esteban Ribovics1.15 0.03
Edson Barboza5.29 0.68
12 Aug14 Aug

Model vs market

Esteban Ribovics win-16.1pp
AI
66%
Market
82.1%
Edson Barboza win+16.1pp
AI
34%
Market
17.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza?+

Our AI model favors Esteban Ribovics to win, with a 66% probability (Edson Barboza 34%).

What time does Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza start?+

This fight took place on Aug 16, 2026, 1:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Esteban Ribovics and Edson Barboza?+

Esteban Ribovics is 15-2-0 (W-L-D). Edson Barboza is 24-12-0 (W-L-D).