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FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima

Primera División· Clausura - 6
FBC Melgar
1–1Full-time
Alianza Lima
WDLWGoals 20-104th in league
DLDWGoals 19-121st in league
Away5W 3D 1L(8-4)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 23'E. Pavez
  2. 33'Cristian Bordacahar (N. Quagliata)
  3. 45+2'Erick Castillo (Jesús Castillo)
  4. 46'Jesús Castillo (F. Girotti)
  5. 57'Walter Tandazo
  6. 66'Gaspar Gentile (Paolo Guerrero)
  7. 69'Cristian Bordacahar (J. Caceres)
  8. 78'L. González
  9. 79'J. Velez (Jean Pierre Archimbaud)
  10. 79'Erick Castillo (C. Neira)
  11. 82'Juan Escobar
  12. 83'Walter Tandazo (M. Portillo)
  13. 83'Johnny Vidales (M. Zegarra)
  14. 90+3'N. Cabanillas (L. Guzman)
Lineups unavailable for this match.
FBC MelgarAlianza Lima
2.0
Goals/game
1.9
1.0
Conceded/game
1.2

AI match analysis

FBC Melgar win
47.54%
Draw
30.8%
Alianza Lima win
21.66%
61.1%BTTS
58.8%Over 2.5
23.5%FBC Melgar clean sheet
20.2%Alianza Lima clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests that FBC Melgar, despite their inconsistent home form, has been effective in scoring, averaging 2 goals per home match. On the other hand, Alianza Lima's inability to secure wins on the road this season may present an opportunity for Melgar to capitalize, especially given their recent head-to-head competitiveness. The statistics favor a close match with a slight edge to the home side.

  • FBC Melgar has a strong recent home scoring average of 2 goals per match.
  • Alianza Lima is yet to win an away game this season, with two draws.
  • The last five head-to-head encounters have seen a mix of results, indicating competitive matches.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
81/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors FBC Melgar

  • Strong away recordAlianza Lima

    Alianza Lima have won 5 of their last 9 away matches.

    5/9 away wins
  • Sharper attackFBC Melgar

    FBC Melgar are averaging 2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2/game
  • Tighter defenseFBC Melgar

    FBC Melgar are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1/game conceded
  • Higher league positionAlianza Lima

    Alianza Lima sit 3 places above FBC Melgar in the table.

    #1 vs #4

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked FBC Melgar at 47.54% — final result was a draw, FBC Melgar 1-1 Alianza Lima.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (81/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

FBC Melgar2.06market 48.5% · model 47.54%
Draw ✓3.03market 33% · model 30.8%
Alianza Lima3.70market 27% · model 21.66%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • FBC Melgar have averaged 2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Alianza Lima have averaged 1.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3FBC Melgar wins
3Draws
2Alianza Lima wins
7-7Goals
Alianza Lima
2–2Nov 1, 2025, 1:00 AM
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
0–1Jun 28, 2025, 11:15 PM
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
1–1Sep 29, 2024, 1:30 AM
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
1–0Apr 28, 2024, 10:30 PM
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
0–0Sep 29, 2023, 1:30 AM
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
2–1May 19, 2023, 11:30 PM
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
2–0Nov 13, 2022, 1:00 AM
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
1–0Nov 9, 2022, 8:00 PM
Alianza Lima

Odds comparison

Match winner

FBC Melgar2.06▲best 2.14
Draw3.03▼best 3.20
Alianza Lima3.70▼best 4.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.25▲best 2.35
Under 2.51.59best 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes1.95▼best 2.10
No1.76▲best 1.85

Double chance

FBC Melgar/Draw1.24▲best 1.31
FBC Melgar/Alianza Lima1.32▲best 1.36
Draw/Alianza Lima1.68▼best 1.75

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.40▼best 3.40
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.30▲best 1.30
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.38▼best 2.38
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.53▲best 1.53

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

FBC Melgar2.06▼ 0.04
Draw3.03▲ 0.05
Alianza Lima3.70▼ 0.20
20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

FBC Melgar win+2.8pp
AI
47.54%
Market
44.7%
Draw+0.4pp
AI
30.8%
Market
30.4%
Alianza Lima win-3.2pp
AI
21.66%
Market
24.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
4
FBC Melgar
231166+1339WLDW
1
Alianza Lima
171241+2240WWDW

Pre-match comparison

2Goals scored per game1.9
1Goals conceded per game1.2

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

M. Palomino

5.13Yellow cards / game
0.5Red cards / game
0.38Penalties scored / game

Based on 8 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

FBC Melgar

0-15'
20%
16-30'
20%
31-45'
20%
46-60'
20%
61-75'
20%
76-90+'
0%

Alianza Lima

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
100%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
0%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?+

Our AI model favors FBC Melgar to win, with a 47.54% probability (Draw 30.8%, Alianza Lima 21.66%).

What time does FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 8:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).