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FC Cajamarca vs Universitario

Primera División· Clausura - 5
FC Cajamarca
2–3Full-time
Universitario
WLWGoals 8-713th in league
DLDWGoals 18-82nd in league
Home0W 1D 1L(2-4)
Away2W 0D 1L(5-5)
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon

Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca · Capacity 18,000 · artificial turf · Referee: M. Palomino

Value found

+1.2% edge

Universitario win

1.87AI fair odds
1.89Bookmaker odds
+1.2%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 17'Y. Vílchez
  2. 25'César Inga (Gianluca Lapadula)
  3. 29'Alex Valera (César Inga)
  4. 45'M. Rasmussen
  5. 60'A. J. Posito Olazabal
  6. 61'Gianluca Lapadula
  7. 65'M. Rasmussen (J. Betancourt)
  8. 65'C. A. Correa Flores (E. Aubert)
  9. 65'C. Meza (J. Lugo)
  10. 69'R. Suarez
  11. 71'Alex Valera
  12. 72'Juan Manuel Requena (Jorge Murrugarra)
  13. 72'Jairo Concha (Piero Quispe)
  14. 80'Gianluca Lapadula (José Rivera)
  15. 80'Jorge Murrugarra
  16. 81'J. Orejuela
  17. 86'A. Santamaría
  18. 88'J. Lugo
  19. 89'Alex Valera (Williams Riveros)
  20. 90'Adrián Quiroz (Héctor Fertoli)

Lineups

FC Cajamarca
Universitario
4-2-3-14-4-2
12
12. Samuel Aspajo
5
5. R. Suarez
95
95. Y. Vílchez
2. A. J. Posito Olazabal
← 65'
6. M. Rasmussen
← 65'
13. C. A. Correa Flores
18
18. J. Orejuela
31
31. S. Enciso
17
17. B. Palacios
20
← 65'
20. C. Meza
11
11. M. Arrasco
← 80'
18. Gianluca Lapadula
← 89'
20. Alex Valera
← 72'
15. Juan Manuel Requena
← 72'
17. Jairo Concha
← 90'
28. Adrián Quiroz
24
24. A. Polo
33. César Inga
5. Matías Di Benedetto
2. Caín Fara
4
4. A. Santamaría
1. Diego Romero
Rafael Ayala Gavilan CelsoCoachHector Cuper
Bench (9)
Bench (9)
FC CajamarcaUniversitario
2.7
Goals/game
1.8
2.3
Conceded/game
0.8

AI match analysis

FC Cajamarca win
18.83%
Draw
27.65%
Universitario win
53.52%
71.9%BTTS
73.1%Over 2.5
12.7%FC Cajamarca clean sheet
17.7%Universitario clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests that Universitario enters this match in better form, having secured three wins in their last five outings, including two away victories. FC Cajamarca, meanwhile, has struggled at home with no wins so far this season, which likely contributes to the bookmaker's higher implied probability for an away win.

  • Universitario in better recent form with 3 wins in last 5 matches
  • FC Cajamarca has not yet won at home this season
  • Universitario has scored an average of 1.7 goals per match in their last 10 games
  • FC Cajamarca has a recent home goal difference of -1
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
82/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Universitario

  • Sharper attackFC Cajamarca

    FC Cajamarca are averaging 2.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.7/game
  • Good recent formFC Cajamarca

    FC Cajamarca have won 2 of their last 3 matches.

    2W 0D 1L
  • Weak home recordFC Cajamarca

    FC Cajamarca have won 0 of their last 2 home matches.

    0/2 home wins
  • Strong away recordUniversitario

    Universitario have won 2 of their last 3 away matches.

    2/3 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Limited recent-match sample

    FC Cajamarca has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • No head-to-head history

    These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Universitario at 53.52% — final result was Universitario win, FC Cajamarca 2-3 Universitario.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (82/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Universitario ✓1.89market 52.9% · model 53.52%
Draw3.29market 30.4% · model 27.65%
FC Cajamarca4.07market 24.6% · model 18.83%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • FC Cajamarca have averaged 2.7 goals scored per game over their last 3 matches.
  • Universitario have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

FC Cajamarca4.07▼best 4.60
Draw3.29▼best 3.50
Universitario1.89▲best 2.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.06▲best 2.13
Under 2.51.71▼best 1.76

Both teams to score

Yes1.86▼best 2.00
No1.83▲best 1.87

Double chance

FC Cajamarca/Draw1.83▼best 1.91
FC Cajamarca/Universitario1.28▲best 1.33
Draw/Universitario1.21▲best 1.26

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.00▼best 4.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22▲best 1.22
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.38▲best 2.38
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.53▼best 1.53

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

FC Cajamarca4.07▼ 0.55
Draw3.29▼ 0.11
Universitario1.89▲ 0.15
13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

FC Cajamarca win-4pp
AI
18.83%
Market
22.8%
Draw-0.5pp
AI
27.65%
Market
28.1%
Universitario win+4.4pp
AI
53.52%
Market
49.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
13
FC Cajamarca
4112-14LLDD
2
Universitario
6411+413WDLW

Pre-match comparison

2.67Goals scored per game1.8
2.33Goals conceded per game0.8

Rolling averages based on each team's last 3 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

M. Palomino

4.88Yellow cards / game
0.38Red cards / game
0.13Penalties scored / game

Based on 8 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

FC Cajamarca

0-15'
36.4%
16-30'
27.3%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
18.2%
61-75'
9.1%
76-90+'
9.1%

Universitario

0-15'
0%
16-30'
25%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
50%
76-90+'
25%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win FC Cajamarca vs Universitario?+

Our AI model favors Universitario to win, with a 53.52% probability (Draw 27.65%, FC Cajamarca 18.83%).

Where is FC Cajamarca vs Universitario played?+

The match is played at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca (capacity 18,000).

What time does FC Cajamarca vs Universitario kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 8:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).