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FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Premier League· Regular Season - 3
FC Kharkiv
0–1Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
DWLWGoals 21-99th in league
WWLWGoals 22-92nd in league
Home1W 0D 1L(1-1)
Away2W 0D 0L(3-0)

Value found

+5.5% edge

Draw

3.33AI fair odds
3.52Bookmaker odds
+5.5%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 1'Newerton Palmares (Isaque)
  2. 50'A. Smoliakov
  3. 57'Goal Under Review - offside — P. Itodo
  4. 61'M. Matviyenko
  5. 65'Isaque (G. Mendoza)
  6. 70'O. Martyniuk (E. Rashica)
  7. 71'Alisson Santana (A. Bondarenko)
  8. 71'Alisson Santana (Luca Meirelles)
  9. 71'Kauã Elias (A. Bondarenko)
  10. 71'Kauã Elias (Luca Meirelles)
  11. 80'Ramik Gadzhyev (B. Zabergja)
  12. 80'P. Itodo (S. Castillo)
  13. 81'Pedrinho (I. Azarovi)
  14. 81'Newerton Palmares (Lucas Ferreira)
  15. 86'C. Paraco (I. Kogut)
  16. 86'I. Kalyuzhnyi (Rafael Profini)

Lineups

FC Kharkiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
4-4-24-3-3
1
1. H. Yermakov
24
← 70'
24. O. Martyniuk
31
31. A. Shabanov
18
18. Y. Pavlyuk
27
27. I. Krupskyi
29
29. A. Smoliakov
8
8. O. Yatsyk
5
← 86'
5. I. Kalyuzhnyi
14
← 80'
14. Ramik Gadzhyev
98
← 80'
98. P. Itodo
10
← 86'
10. C. Paraco
11
← 81'
11. Newerton Palmares
← 71'
9. Kauã Elias
← 71'
30. Alisson Santana
14
← 65'
14. Isaque
29
29. E. Nazaryna
27
27. O. Ocheretko
13
← 81'
13. Pedrinho
22
22. M. Matviyenko
5. Valeriy Bondar
17
17. Vinícius Tobias
31
31. D. Riznyk
Mladen BartulovicCoachArda Turan
Bench (12)
Bench (12)
FC KharkivShakhtar Donetsk
2.1
Goals/game
2.2
0.9
Conceded/game
0.9

AI match analysis

FC Kharkiv win
20%
Draw
30%
Shakhtar Donetsk win
50%
61.2%BTTS
58.8%Over 2.5
21.2%FC Kharkiv clean sheet
22.3%Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests a favorable outlook for Shakhtar Donetsk with a solid recent form and a strong head-to-head record against FC Kharkiv. Historically, Shakhtar has dominated their matchups, winning 4 out of the last 5 encounters. FC Kharkiv's scoring average of 1.3 goals per game indicates potential challenges in finding the back of the net consistently, while Shakhtar has averaged 2.2 goals scored in their last 10 matches.

  • Shakhtar Donetsk has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against FC Kharkiv.
  • FC Kharkiv has only scored 1.3 goals per game on average in last 10 matches.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk is currently on a winning streak with 2 consecutive victories.
  • FC Kharkiv's home record this season stands at 1 win from 1 match played.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
75/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Shakhtar Donetsk

  • Historical edgeShakhtar Donetsk

    Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

    5/7 H2H wins
  • Good recent formShakhtar Donetsk

    Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L
  • Sharper attackShakhtar Donetsk

    Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.2 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    2.2/game
  • Higher league positionShakhtar Donetsk

    Shakhtar Donetsk sit 7 places above FC Kharkiv in the table.

    #2 vs #9

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Shakhtar Donetsk at 50% — final result was Shakhtar Donetsk win, FC Kharkiv 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.

Predicted score was 1-2.

This was a high confidence pick (75/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Shakhtar Donetsk ✓1.65market 60.4% · model 50%
Draw3.52market 28.4% · model 30%
FC Kharkiv4.84market 20.6% · model 20%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • FC Kharkiv have averaged 2.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 7 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

0FC Kharkiv wins
2Draws
5Shakhtar Donetsk wins
2-15Goals
Shakhtar Donetsk
1–0Mar 15, 2026, 4:00 PM
FC Kharkiv
FC Kharkiv
1–1Sep 13, 2025, 3:00 PM
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
2–0Dec 3, 2023, 3:00 PM
FC Kharkiv
FC Kharkiv
1–2Jul 29, 2023, 2:00 PM
Shakhtar Donetsk
FC Kharkiv
0–7Mar 5, 2023, 12:00 PM
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
0–0Aug 23, 2022, 10:00 AM
FC Kharkiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
2–0Aug 13, 2021, 4:30 PM
FC Kharkiv

Odds comparison

Match winner

FC Kharkiv4.84best 5.30
Draw3.52best 3.72
Shakhtar Donetsk1.65best 1.72

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.15best 2.28
Under 2.51.65best 1.75

Both teams to score

Yes2.06best 2.20
No1.67best 1.75

Double chance

FC Kharkiv/Draw2.11best 2.25
FC Kharkiv/Shakhtar Donetsk1.24best 1.29
Draw/Shakhtar Donetsk1.13best 1.15

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.00best 4.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22best 1.22
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.10best 2.10
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.67best 1.67

Average and best price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

FC Kharkiv4.84▲ 0.07
Draw3.52▲ 0.01
Shakhtar Donetsk1.65
16 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

FC Kharkiv win+1.2pp
AI
20%
Market
18.8%
Draw+4pp
AI
30%
Market
26%
Shakhtar Donetsk win-5.2pp
AI
50%
Market
55.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
9
FC Kharkiv
3102-23LLW
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
3300+79WWW

Pre-match comparison

2.1Goals scored per game2.2
0.9Goals conceded per game0.9

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

O. Shandor

4.3Yellow cards / game
0.2Red cards / game
0.3Penalties scored / game

Based on 10 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

FC Kharkiv

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
16.7%
46-60'
16.7%
61-75'
66.7%
76-90+'
0%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?+

Our AI model favors Shakhtar Donetsk to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 30%, FC Kharkiv 20%).

What time does FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 12:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).