FC Porto vs Arouca
Estádio Do Dragão, Porto · Capacity 50,399 · grass · Referee: J. Pinheiro
Match events
- 59'Jakub Kiwior
- 59'Goal Disallowed - offside — Jakub Kiwior
- 62'H. Lee (P. Gozalbez)
- 62'Barbero (D. Nandín)
- 67'Gabriel Veiga (William Gomes)
- 72'André Silva (D. Gul)
- 72'E. van Ee (Pedro Santos)
- 72'A. Trezza (B. Mansilla)
- 76'William Gomes (Borja Sainz)
- 76'Gabriel Veiga (In-Beom Hwang)
- 83'In-Beom Hwang
- 86'Borja Sainz (Pepe)
- 88'O. Lebedenko (B. Popovic)
- 88'Tiago Esgaio (Mateo Flores)
- 88'J. Bednarek (Nehuén Pérez)
Lineups
- 1.8
- Goals/game
- 1.5
- 0.6
- Conceded/game
- 1.0
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-0
Data suggests that FC Porto has a significant advantage, particularly given their strong home record and historical dominance over Arouca in their last meetings. Arouca's recent form is commendable, but their scoring has been less prolific compared to Porto's. Thus, the numbers favor a home victory with a predicted scoreline of 2-0.
- FC Porto unbeaten at home this season
- Arouca has struggled in recent head-to-head matches against FC Porto
- FC Porto's recent form includes strong wins without conceding
- Arouca has a lower scoring average in their last 10 matches compared to FC Porto
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors FC Porto
- Historical edgeFC Porto
FC Porto have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
6/8 H2H wins - Good recent formFC Porto
FC Porto have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Strong recent formArouca
Arouca are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including 3 wins.
3W 2D 0L - Sharper attackFC Porto
FC Porto are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked FC Porto at 76.74% — final result was FC Porto win, FC Porto 2-0 Arouca.
Predicted score was 2-0.
This was a high confidence pick (100/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- FC Porto have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Arouca have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Arouca
FC PortoFC PortoAroucaAroucaFC PortoFC PortoAroucaAroucaFC PortoFC PortoAroucaAroucaFC PortoFC PortoAroucaOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
J. Pinheiro
Based on 3 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
FC Porto
Arouca
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Academico ViseuFC PortoFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win FC Porto vs Arouca?+
Our AI model favors FC Porto to win, with a 76.74% probability (Draw 14.82%, Arouca 8.44%).
Where is FC Porto vs Arouca played?+
The match is played at Estádio Do Dragão, Porto (capacity 50,399).
What time does FC Porto vs Arouca kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 7:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).