Genoa vs Ascoli
Match events
- 25'A. Silipo (Simone D'Uffizi)
- 42'Alessandro Marcandalli (Mikael Ellertsson)
- 45'Tommaso Baldanzi (Brooke Norton-Cuffy)
- 46'Mario Mitaj (D. Sow)
- 46'Sebastian Otoa (Leo Østigård)
- 50'Leo Østigård
- 57'Giovanni Corradini (G. Acampora)
- 57'G. Gori (M. A. Chakir)
- 61'Lorenzo Colombo (Morten Frendrup)
- 66'Lorenzo Colombo (Elias Havel)
- 75'Tommaso Milanese (Andrea Oliveri)
- 75'S. Damiani (Antonio Russo)
- 77'Mikael Ellertsson (David Puczka)
- 78'Tommaso Baldanzi (Samuel Wiafe)
- 80'Simone D'Uffizi (Don Bolsius)
- 80'Elias Havel (Samuel Wiafe)
- 85'Marcos Curado
- 0.5
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 1.2
- Conceded/game
- 0.8
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-0
Data suggests that Genoa is struggling offensively, averaging only 0.5 goals per game over their last five matches, which may hinder their chances against a more in-form Ascoli. Conversely, Ascoli has shown resilience in their away matches, remaining unbeaten in their last three. Historically, Genoa has had the upper hand in recent head-to-head encounters, winning two out of the last three. The statistics indicate that while Genoa has a solid home advantage, their current form creates uncertainty.
- Ascoli unbeaten in last 3 away matches
- Genoa has not scored in last 3 matches
- Genoa averaged just 0.5 goals in last 5 matches
- Head-to-head favors Genoa with 2 wins in last 3 encounters
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Genoa
- Poor recent formGenoa
Genoa have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L - Good recent formAscoli
Ascoli have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Historical edgeGenoa
Genoa have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two teams.
2/3 H2H wins - Sharper attackAscoli
Ascoli are averaging 1.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Genoa at 66% — final result was Genoa win, Genoa 4-1 Ascoli.
Predicted score was 1-0.
This was a high confidence pick (87/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Genoa have averaged 0.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Ascoli have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 3 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
M. Perri
Based on 2 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Genoa
Ascoli
More Coppa Italia predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Genoa vs Ascoli?+
Our AI model favors Genoa to win, with a 66% probability (Draw 21%, Ascoli 13%).
What time does Genoa vs Ascoli kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 4:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).