Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern

UFC· UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry· Women's Strawweight· Main Event
WWWL
The Savage17-8-0 (W-L-D)3 KO, 9 SUB
Ht 165cmWt 53kgReach 160cmStance Orthodox
The Goat Shed
LLWW
15-5-0 (W-L-D)0 KO, 8 SUB
Ht 163cmWt 53kgReach 160cmStance Orthodox
RVCA

Value found

+23.9% edge

Gillian Robertson win

2.22AI fair odds
2.75Bookmaker odds
+23.9%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Gillian Robertson win
45%
Mackenzie Dern win
55%

The matchup between Gillian Robertson and Mackenzie Dern appears closely contested. The data suggests that Robertson's strong grappling with a high submission finish rate gives her an edge, especially against a fighter like Dern who has struggled against elite competition. Conversely, Dern's own submission proficiency keeps the fight competitive but may not be enough to overcome Robertson's recent form. Overall, historical performance indicates a slight advantage for Dern, giving her an estimated 55% chance of victory.

  • Robertson has finished 9 of her 17 wins by submission, showcasing strong grappling skills.
  • Dern has a notable submission game, with 8 of her 15 wins coming by submission but has lost to top-level grapplers recently.
  • Both fighters are similar in height and reach, which may negate physical advantages.
  • Robertson's recent win streak could provide momentum, while Dern has faced tough competition.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
66/100

Confidence is moderate because the two fighters are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Mackenzie Dern

  • More experiencedGillian Robertson

    Gillian Robertson has fought 25 professional fights, 5 more than their opponent tonight.

    25 pro fights
  • Superior career recordMackenzie Dern

    Mackenzie Dern carries a 15-5 professional record, a 75% win rate.

    15-5
  • High finishing rateGillian Robertson

    Gillian Robertson has finished 12 of 17 career wins by knockout or submission, a 71% finish rate.

    71% finish rate

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fight and confidence remains moderate.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Gillian Robertson2.75best 2.78AI 45%
Mackenzie Dern1.45best 1.47AI 55%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Gillian Robertson2.75 0.12
Mackenzie Dern1.45 0.03
12 Aug14 Aug

Model vs market

Gillian Robertson win+10.6pp
AI
45%
Market
34.4%
Mackenzie Dern win-10.6pp
AI
55%
Market
65.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern?+

Our AI model favors Mackenzie Dern to win, with a 55% probability (Gillian Robertson 45%).

What time does Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern start?+

This fight took place on Aug 16, 2026, 2:40 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Gillian Robertson and Mackenzie Dern?+

Gillian Robertson is 17-8-0 (W-L-D). Mackenzie Dern is 15-5-0 (W-L-D).