Gnistan vs Ilves
Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki · Capacity 2,500 · artificial turf
Match events
- 4'S. Väisänen
- 14'T. Hytönen (O. Pettersson)
- 24'Bogdan Milovanov
- 42'A. Popovitch (K. Wallius)
- 43'S. Väisänen
- 45+1'A. Akinyemi (G. Europaeus)
- 46'S. Ylätupa (A. Atarah)
- 56'S. Väisänen
- 56'S. Väisänen
- 62'Y. Sacko (Yiandro Raap)
- 63'J. Kilo (S. Baranov)
- 63'A. Akinyemi (D. Pérez)
- 78'A. Popovitch (Roope Riski)
- 79'O. Pettersson (G. Bamba)
- 81'Bogdan Milovanov
- 86'Roman Eremenko (J. Latonen)
- 86'Ruxi (Sergei Eremenko)
- 89'T. Miettunen (M. Stjopin)
- 90+2'D. Pérez
- 90+3'J. Kanga
- 90+4'A. Atarah (J. Ojala)
- 1.6
- Goals/game
- 1.5
- 2.6
- Conceded/game
- 1.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Gnistan has struggled defensively, with a high average of goals conceded in recent matches. Ilves has a favorable head-to-head record against Gnistan, which may bolster their chances in this matchup. While Gnistan performs well at home, the away form of Ilves combined with their recent victories may give them the upper hand.
- Gnistan conceded an average of 2.6 goals over their last 10 matches
- Ilves has won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Gnistan
- Gnistan has a strong home record of 5 wins out of 9 this season
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Ilves
- Strong home recordGnistan
Gnistan have won 6 of their last 10 home matches.
6/10 home wins - Weak away recordIlves
Ilves have won 1 of their last 11 away matches.
1/11 away wins - Historical edgeIlves
Ilves have won 3 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
3/6 H2H wins - Tighter defenseIlves
Ilves are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 40% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Ilves at 40% — final result was Gnistan win, Gnistan 3-2 Ilves.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Gnistan have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Ilves have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Gnistan
Ilves
More Veikkausliiga predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Gnistan vs Ilves?+
Our AI model favors Ilves to win, with a 40% probability (Draw 26%, Gnistan 34%).
Where is Gnistan vs Ilves played?+
The match is played at Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki (capacity 2,500).
What time does Gnistan vs Ilves kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 17, 2026, 3:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).