Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils
Value found
+1.4% edgeGrobiņa win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 16'Doukumo Ayebadiepreye
- 21'Krisjanis rupeiks
- 51'Maksims Sidorovs
- 59'Doukumo Ayebadiepreye (Ervins pinaskins)
- 60'Daniel Kiwinda
- 70'Substitution 1 (Artjoms Puzirevskis)
- 71'Raivis Skrebels
- 73'Substitution 2 (Ziad Ouled-Haj-M'Hand)
- 75'Milan·Corryn (Artjoms Puzirevskis)
- 79'Milan·Corryn
- 79'Milan·Corryn
- 82'eseme william mukwelle
- 89'Substitution 2 (Gļebs Kļuškins)
- 0.9
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 2.0
- Conceded/game
- 1.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
The numbers favor BFC Daugavpils, who have shown a stronger performance recently compared to Grobiņa, who are currently on a four-match losing streak. Historically, BFC Daugavpils has had the upper hand in their head-to-head clashes, winning three of the last five meetings. Given their standings and respective recent forms, the match is likely to see BFC Daugavpils edging out Grobiņa again.
- BFC Daugavpils has won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Grobiņa.
- Grobiņa's recent form includes 4 consecutive losses.
- BFC Daugavpils has a better recent form with 3 wins in the last 5 matches.
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors BFC Daugavpils
- Poor recent formGrobiņa
Grobiņa have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L - Tighter defenseBFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded - Historical edgeBFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins - Higher league positionBFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils sit 4 places above Grobiņa in the table.
#4 vs #8
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked BFC Daugavpils at 41.25% — final result was Grobiņa win, Grobiņa 1-0 BFC Daugavpils.
Predicted score was 1-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Grobiņa have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- BFC Daugavpils have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
BFC Daugavpils
GrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaGrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsBFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaGrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsBFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grobiņa | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -30 | 24 | LLLD |
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | +1 | 37 | DWWL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
More Virsliga predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?+
Our AI model favors BFC Daugavpils to win, with a 41.25% probability (Draw 26.07%, Grobiņa 32.68%).
What time does Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 29, 2026, 12:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).