Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX

Liga MX· Apertura - 5

Guadalajara Chivas

5–2Full-time

Club Tijuana

DLWLWWGoals 10-104th in league

WLLLLWGoals 13-242nd in league

Home2W 0D 1L(6-4)

Away0W 1D 0L(0-0)

Estadio Akron, Zapopan · Capacity 46,609 · artificial turf · Referee: M. Chavez

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

8'E. Alvarez
23'S. Sandoval (Luís Romo)
31'R. Marin (D. Campillo Del Campo)
45+1'R. Arciga
45+2'R. Marin
46'D. Abreu (Elias Manoel)
46'P. N. Ortiz Orozco (A. Vega)
46'Ignacio Rivero (Jonathan Padilla)
49'M. Gómez
53'E. Alvarez (L. Rey)
53'M. Gómez (Brian Gutierrez)
56'R. Arciga (F. Gonzalez)
60'Roberto Alvarado (Brian Gutierrez)
64'S. Sandoval (J. Carrillo)
64'H. Camberos (Kevin Castañeda)
69'D. Campillo Del Campo (Roberto Alvarado)
72'R. Marin (Ángel Sepúlveda)
73'Luís Romo
75'Elias Manoel (F. Gonzalez)
79'G. Mora (Ángel Zapata)
90+2'Elias Manoel (A. Preciado)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Guadalajara ChivasClub Tijuana

1.0
Goals/game: 1.3; 1.0
Conceded/game: 2.4

AI match analysis

Guadalajara Chivas win

63%

Draw

21%

Club Tijuana win

16%

55.9%BTTS

54.2%Over 2.5

31.7%Guadalajara Chivas clean sheet

18.3%Club Tijuana clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-0

The data suggests that Guadalajara Chivas is in a relatively strong position, especially with their recent home performances against Club Tijuana, having won their last three encounters. Meanwhile, Club Tijuana's defensive struggles are notable, allowing an average of 2.4 goals per game in their recent outings. Given these factors, a narrow win for the home side seems likely.

Guadalajara Chivas unbeaten in last 3 home matches against Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana has conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last 10 matches
Guadalajara Chivas has a solid recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

100/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Guadalajara Chivas

Historical edgeGuadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins
Strong home recordGuadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.
2/3 home wins
Weak away recordClub Tijuana
Club Tijuana have won 0 of their last 1 away matches.
0/1 away wins
Tighter defenseGuadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Guadalajara Chivas at 63% — final result was Guadalajara Chivas win, Guadalajara Chivas 5-2 Club Tijuana.

Predicted score was 1-0.

This was a high confidence pick (100/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Guadalajara Chivas ✓1.47market 68% · model 63%

Draw4.34market 23% · model 21%

Club Tijuana6.05market 16.5% · model 16%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Club Tijuana have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5Guadalajara Chivas wins

3Draws

0Club Tijuana wins

10-4Goals

Club Tijuana

1–1Jan 27, 2024, 3:00 AM

Guadalajara Chivas

1–0Aug 23, 2023, 1:00 AM

Club Tijuana

Guadalajara Chivas

2–1Feb 16, 2023, 1:05 AM

Club Tijuana

1–2Sep 8, 2022, 2:05 AM

Guadalajara Chivas

2–1Apr 20, 2022, 2:00 AM

Club Tijuana

0–0Oct 21, 2021, 2:06 AM

Guadalajara Chivas

2–0Apr 18, 2021, 12:00 AM

Club Tijuana

0–0Oct 5, 2020, 2:06 AM

Guadalajara Chivas

Odds comparison

Match winner

Guadalajara Chivas1.47▲best 1.52

Draw4.34▼best 4.66

Club Tijuana6.05▼best 7.00

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.66▲best 1.74

Under 2.52.16▼best 2.25

Both teams to score

Yes1.78▲best 1.87

No1.94▼best 2.05

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas/Draw1.11best 1.13

Guadalajara Chivas/Club Tijuana1.18best 1.21

Draw/Club Tijuana2.56best 2.70

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.55▲best 1.57

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.30▼best 2.35

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.09▲best 1.10

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes6.63▼best 7.00

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Guadalajara Chivas1.47▲ 0.05

Draw4.34▲ 0.04

Club Tijuana6.05▼ 0.62

19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Guadalajara Chivas win-0.2pp

63%

Market

63.2%

Draw-0.4pp

21%

Market

21.4%

Club Tijuana win+0.6pp

16%

Market

15.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.