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HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan

Veikkausliiga· Regular Season - 21
HJK Helsinki
2–3Full-time
Gnistan
LWLWGoals 14-204th in league
DDLWGoals 16-263rd in league
Home6W 2D 3L(18-14)
Away4W 4D 3L(15-12)
Bolt Arena

Bolt Arena, Helsinki · Capacity 10,770 · artificial turf

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 23'S. Haarala
  2. 35'M. Juricka (O. Lyberopoulos)
  3. 45+2'V. Tikkanen (L. Montano)
  4. 46'G. Europaeus (A. Atarah)
  5. 55'Alexander Ring
  6. 61'S. Ylätupa (J. Latonen)
  7. 67'Bogdan Milovanov
  8. 68'A. Akinyemi (A. Atarah)
  9. 70'K. Simojoki
  10. 71'K. Simojoki (M. Ylitolva)
  11. 71'M. Kirilov (J. Kallinen)
  12. 71'Alexander Ring (Teemu Pukki)
  13. 71'Alexander Ring (J. Kallinen)
  14. 71'M. Kirilov (Teemu Pukki)
  15. 76'Roman Eremenko (D. Pérez)
  16. 78'E. Arko-Mensah
  17. 83'A. Akinyemi (Bogdan Milovanov)
  18. 86'A. Cicale (L. Lappalainen)
  19. 86'S. Haarala (L. Moller)
  20. 89'D. Pérez

Lineups

HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
4-4-23-4-2-1
44
44. Matej Marković
14
14. L. Montano
3
3. Till Cissokho
6
6. V. Tikkanen
13
← 71'
13. K. Simojoki
7
← 86'
7. A. Cicale
8
8. Pyry Mentu
← 71'
4. Alexander Ring
29
← 86'
29. S. Haarala
17
← 71'
17. M. Kirilov
9
9. Mads Borchers
17
17. A. Akinyemi
← 76'
26. Roman Eremenko
23
← 61'
23. S. Ylätupa
12
12. E. Arko-Mensah
15
← 46'
15. G. Europaeus
31
31. Adam Jouhi
19. Bogdan Milovanov
67. Ayo Obileye
24
24. Rachide Gnanou
95
← 35'
95. M. Juricka
Joonas RantanenCoachJussi Leppalahti
Bench (8)
Bench (8)
HJK HelsinkiGnistan
1.4
Goals/game
1.6
2.0
Conceded/game
2.6

AI match analysis

HJK Helsinki win
58.79%
Draw
21.66%
Gnistan win
19.55%
72.2%BTTS
73.1%Over 2.5
16.5%HJK Helsinki clean sheet
13.5%Gnistan clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

The data suggests that HJK Helsinki has a favorable position with an unbeaten record at home in recent matches. Meanwhile, Gnistan has struggled defensively with high averages of goals conceded per game. The previous head-to-head encounters indicate a closely contested rivalry, yet current home performance tilts the odds in favor of HJK.

  • HJK Helsinki unbeaten in last 5 home matches
  • Gnistan has conceded 2.6 goals per game over last 10 matches
  • Last match ended in a draw of 2-2, highlighting competitive nature
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
98/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors HJK Helsinki

  • Strong home recordHJK Helsinki

    HJK Helsinki have won 6 of their last 11 home matches.

    6/11 home wins
  • Weak away recordGnistan

    Gnistan have won 4 of their last 11 away matches.

    4/11 away wins
  • Tighter defenseHJK Helsinki

    HJK Helsinki are conceding just 2 goals per game over their recent matches.

    2/game conceded
  • Higher league positionGnistan

    Gnistan sit 1 place above HJK Helsinki in the table.

    #3 vs #4

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked HJK Helsinki at 58.79% — final result was Gnistan win, HJK Helsinki 2-3 Gnistan.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (98/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

HJK Helsinki1.59market 62.8% · model 58.79%
Draw4.15market 24.1% · model 21.66%
Gnistan ✓4.73market 21.2% · model 19.55%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • HJK Helsinki have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Gnistan have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

3HJK Helsinki wins
1Draws
2Gnistan wins
13-8Goals
Gnistan
2–2Nov 3, 2025, 5:00 PM
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
2–3Oct 3, 2025, 4:00 PM
Gnistan
Gnistan
2–4Jul 28, 2025, 4:00 PM
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
0–1Apr 22, 2025, 4:00 PM
Gnistan
Gnistan
0–4Jun 12, 2024, 4:00 PM
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
1–0May 22, 2024, 3:00 PM
Gnistan

Odds comparison

Match winner

HJK Helsinki1.59▼best 1.64
Draw4.15▲best 4.45
Gnistan4.73▲best 4.93

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.48best 1.52
Under 2.52.50▲best 2.61

Both teams to score

Yes1.53▲best 1.57
No2.34▼best 2.40

Double chance

HJK Helsinki/Draw1.16▼best 1.21
HJK Helsinki/Gnistan1.19▼best 1.22
Draw/Gnistan2.25▲best 2.32

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.08▼best 1.08
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes8.00▲best 8.00
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.75▼best 2.75
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.40▲best 1.40

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

HJK Helsinki1.59▼ 0.01
Draw4.15▲ 0.15
Gnistan4.73▲ 0.03
20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

HJK Helsinki win+0.7pp
AI
58.79%
Market
58.1%
Draw-0.6pp
AI
21.66%
Market
22.3%
Gnistan win-0.1pp
AI
19.55%
Market
19.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
4
HJK Helsinki
211047+834WWLW
3
Gnistan
211056+735WDLW

Pre-match comparison

1.4Goals scored per game1.6
2Goals conceded per game2.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

HJK Helsinki

0-15'
50%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
25%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
25%
76-90+'
0%

Gnistan

0-15'
33.3%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
33.3%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
33.3%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan?+

Our AI model favors HJK Helsinki to win, with a 58.79% probability (Draw 21.66%, Gnistan 19.55%).

Where is HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan played?+

The match is played at Bolt Arena, Helsinki (capacity 10,770).

What time does HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 12:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).