Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders
NRG Stadium
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 23-21
Data suggests a competitive matchup between the Houston Texans and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Texans have performed better offensively in recent games, averaging 23.7 points scored, while the Raiders have struggled, averaging just 12.3. Historically, their encounters have been tight, with several matches decided by a single score.
- Houston Texans averaged 23.7 points scored in their last 10 matches
- Las Vegas Raiders averaged only 12.3 points scored in their last 10 matches
- Recent head-to-head matches have been closely contested, with the last game decided by just 2 points
Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Houston Texans
- Tighter defenseHouston Texans
Houston Texans are conceding just 19.6 points per game over their recent matches.
19.6/game conceded - Poor recent formHouston Texans
Houston Texans have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Poor recent formLas Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Historical edgeHouston Texans
Houston Texans have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 30/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 48% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Houston Texans at 48% — final result was Las Vegas Raiders win, Houston Texans 20-22 Las Vegas Raiders.
Predicted score was 23-21.
The model itself flagged this as a low confidence pick (30/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Houston Texans have averaged 23.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Las Vegas Raiders have averaged 13.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Houston Texans are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Las Vegas Raiders.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Houston Texans | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| -2 | 1.97 | 1.82 |
| -1.5 | 1.96 | 1.80 |
| -1 | 1.99 | 1.79 |
| -0.5 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
| +0.5 | 1.89 | 1.81 |
| +1 | 1.88 | 1.91 |
| +1.5 | 1.85 | 1.92 |
| +2 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5 | 1.75 | 1.99 |
| 37 | 1.82 | 1.95 |
| 37.5 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| 38 | 1.86 | 1.92 |
| 38.5 | 1.92 | 1.81 |
| 39 | 1.96 | 1.82 |
| 39.5 | 1.99 | 1.77 |
| 40 | 2.04 | 1.75 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
More NFL predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders?+
Our AI model favors Houston Texans to win, with a 48% probability (Las Vegas Raiders 52%).
What time does Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 21, 2026, 12:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders?+
Houston Texans: 17-3-0-0. Las Vegas Raiders: 0-3-7-12. Final: 20-22.