IFK Varnamo vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan

Superettan· Regular Season - 19

IFK Varnamo

1–1Full-time

Ostersunds FK

LLLWWDGoals 16-2515th in league

WWWLWDGoals 11-174th in league

Home2W 4D 4L(12-12)

Away3W 4D 3L(14-12)

Finnvedsvallen, Varnamo · Capacity 5,070 · grass · Referee: R. Beigi

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

11'K. Meriluoto (Axel Bjornström)
22'E. Ozkan
65'J. Ali (M. Palomino)
68'C. Johansson
68'H. Andersson (M. Akinfenwa)
74'K. Meriluoto (S. Jansson)
76'M. Palomino (Curtis Edwards)
77'E. Ozkan (D. Molls)
85'H. Andersson (E. Freij)
85'Viktor Claesson (B. Zulovic)
90'B. Zulovic

Lineups unavailable for this match.

IFK VarnamoOstersunds FK

1.6
Goals/game: 1.1; 2.5
Conceded/game: 1.7

AI match analysis

IFK Varnamo win

39%

Draw

27%

Ostersunds FK win

34%

67.4%BTTS

67%Over 2.5

16.5%IFK Varnamo clean sheet

19.2%Ostersunds FK clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The numbers favor Ostersunds FK given their recent form of two wins and a draw in their last three matches, contrasting with IFK Varnamo's inconsistent performances. Historically, Varnamo has struggled defensively at home, averaging 2.8 goals allowed per game in recent outings, while Ostersunds has shown effectiveness in away matchups. Based on current standings and form, a close scoreline is anticipated, with Ostersunds likely to edge out the match.

Ostersunds FK unbeaten in last 3 matches
IFK Varnamo's home defense has conceded 2.8 goals per game recently
Ostersunds FK ranks 4th compared to Varnamo's 14th in standings

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

64/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors IFK Varnamo

Higher league positionOstersunds FK
Ostersunds FK sit 11 places above IFK Varnamo in the table.
#4 vs #15
Sharper attackIFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game
Tighter defenseOstersunds FK
Ostersunds FK are conceding just 1.7 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.7/game conceded
Weak home recordIFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo have won 2 of their last 10 home matches.
2/10 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked IFK Varnamo at 39% — final result was a draw, IFK Varnamo 1-1 Ostersunds FK.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (64/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

IFK Varnamo2.50market 40% · model 39%

Ostersunds FK2.57market 38.9% · model 34%

Draw ✓3.35market 29.9% · model 27%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

IFK Varnamo have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Ostersunds FK have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

IFK Varnamo2.50▲best 2.60

Draw3.35▼best 3.50

Ostersunds FK2.57▼best 2.73

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.73▲best 1.80

Under 2.52.05▼best 2.14

Both teams to score

Yes1.58▲best 1.62

No2.22▼best 2.26

Double chance

IFK Varnamo/Draw1.45▲best 1.52

IFK Varnamo/Ostersunds FK1.28best 1.30

Draw/Ostersunds FK1.48▼best 1.50

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.00▲best 4.00

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22▼best 1.22

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.00▲best 4.00

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.22▼best 1.22

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

IFK Varnamo2.50▼ 0.05

Draw3.35▼ 0.15

Ostersunds FK2.57▲ 0.02

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

IFK Varnamo win+2.2pp

39%

Market

36.8%

Draw-0.5pp

27%

Market

27.5%

Ostersunds FK win-1.7pp

34%

Market

35.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.