Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Sungui Arena Park, Incheon · Capacity 20,891 · grass
Match events
- 16'T. Park
- 39'Ju-yong Lee
- 40'Lee Kang-hyun
- 46'Kim Joo-Chan (Lee Kun-hee)
- 46'Jung Jae-min (Hong Yun-sang)
- 55'Kim Myung-soon (Choi Seung-gu)
- 55'Lee Dong-Ryul (S. Mugosa)
- 59'S. Mugosa
- 59'Goal Disallowed - Foul — S. Mugosa
- 63'Kim Yi-seok (Park Se-jin)
- 66'S. Mugosa (Morgan Ferrier)
- 79'Go Jae-hyun (Kim In-gyun)
- 79'S. Mugosa
- 84'T. Park (Lee Soo-Bin)
- 86'Lee Myung-Joo (Kim Young-whan)
- 86'Kim Myung-soon (Kim Young-whan)
- 87'Park Se-jin (Park Cheol-Woo)
- 90+6'Lee Jung-Taek
- 90'Gerso Fernandes (Kim Seong-Min)
- 90'Chung-yong Lee (Jeong Chi-In)
- 0.9
- Goals/game
- 0.8
- 1.1
- Conceded/game
- 1.3
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The data suggests a closely contested match, as Incheon United has historically struggled against Gimcheon Sangmu FC, who have not lost to them in their last five encounters. Incheon United's home form remains concerning, with only four wins so far this season. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ability to score more consistently could play a crucial role in this match, leading to a likely draw.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC undefeated in last 5 head-to-head matches against Incheon United.
- Incheon United has struggled at home with only 4 wins out of 11 matches this season.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC averages 1.4 goals scored in their last 10 matches, slightly higher than Incheon's 0.9.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Incheon United
- Sharper attackGimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 0.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
0.8/game - Historical edgeGimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
3/8 H2H wins - Weak home recordIncheon United
Incheon United have won 4 of their last 12 home matches.
4/12 home wins - Weak away recordGimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3 of their last 13 away matches.
3/13 away wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Incheon United at 43.81% — final result was a draw, Incheon United 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Predicted score was 1-1.
This was a high confidence pick (78/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Incheon United have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Incheon UnitedIncheon UnitedGimcheon Sangmu FCGimcheon Sangmu FCIncheon UnitedGimcheon Sangmu FCIncheon UnitedGimcheon Sangmu FCIncheon UnitedIncheon UnitedGimcheon Sangmu FCGimcheon Sangmu FCIncheon UnitedIncheon UnitedGimcheon Sangmu FCOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Incheon United | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | +4 | 33 | WDDD |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 25 | 4 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 27 | DDDW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Incheon United
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
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Who is likely to win Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?+
Our AI model favors Incheon United to win, with a 43.81% probability (Draw 29.88%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26.31%).
Where is Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC played?+
The match is played at Sungui Arena Park, Incheon (capacity 20,891).
What time does Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 10:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).