Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia — Liga Profesional Argentina

Liga Profesional Argentina· Clausura - 6

Independiente

0–0Full-time

Independ. Rivadavia

DLWLLWGoals 12-105th in league

WLDLLWGoals 10-91st in league

Home4W 3D 1L(15-9)

Away4W 3D 0L(10-5)

Value found

+2.8% edge

Independiente win

2.22AI fair odds

2.28Bookmaker odds

+2.8%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

58'Santiago Arias
62'Ezequiel Bonifacio
71'S. Montiel (M. Abaldo)
71'J. Palais (Maximiliano Gutiérrez)
74'L. Costa (G. Rios)
77'M. Salas (L. Bucca)
77'Ezequiel Bonifacio (A. Vigo)
78'A. Vigo
81'J. M. Elordi
82'L. Millan (L. Cabral)
86'M. Fernandez (L. Sequeira)
90+1'M. Perez Curci (Maximiliano Meza)
90+1'Santiago Arias (Leonardo Godoy)
90+4'M. Abaldo

Lineups unavailable for this match.

IndependienteIndepend. Rivadavia

1.2
Goals/game: 1.0; 1.0
Conceded/game: 0.9

AI match analysis

Independiente win

45%

Draw

30%

Independ. Rivadavia win

25%

41.1%BTTS

33.7%Over 2.5

36.8%Independiente clean sheet

35%Independ. Rivadavia clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a competitive match between Independiente and Independ. Rivadavia, with both teams showing recent strength in their respective forms. Independiente boasts a solid home performance, while Independ. Rivadavia remains unbeaten away this season. The likelihood of a draw appears significant, with historical results supporting a closely contested game.

Independiente has a strong home record with 4 wins in 8 matches this season
Independ. Rivadavia is unbeaten in away games this season, with 4 wins and 3 draws
Historically, the last two head-to-head matches resulted in a win for each team, indicating a balanced matchup

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

79/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Independiente

Higher league positionIndepend. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia sit 4 places above Independiente in the table.
#1 vs #5
Good recent formIndependiente
Independiente have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Strong home recordIndependiente
Independiente have won 4 of their last 8 home matches.
4/8 home wins
Strong away recordIndepend. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia have won 4 of their last 7 away matches.
4/7 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Independiente at 45% — final result was a draw, Independiente 0-0 Independ. Rivadavia.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (79/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Independiente2.28market 43.8% · model 45%

Draw ✓3.02market 33.2% · model 30%

Independ. Rivadavia3.44market 29.1% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Independiente have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Independ. Rivadavia have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Independiente wins

0Draws

1Independ. Rivadavia wins

1-1Goals

Independiente

1–0May 11, 2025, 6:30 PM

Independ. Rivadavia

1–0Jul 27, 2024, 6:00 PM

Independiente

Odds comparison

Match winner

Independiente2.28▲best 2.45

Draw3.02▼best 3.20

Independ. Rivadavia3.44▼best 4.33

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.45▲best 2.65

Under 2.51.53▼best 1.57

Both teams to score

Yes2.03▼best 2.07

No1.71▲best 1.80

Double chance

Independiente/Draw1.29▲best 1.35

Independiente/Independ. Rivadavia1.35▲best 1.40

Draw/Independ. Rivadavia1.64▼best 1.85

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.27▲best 1.30

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.60▼best 1.62

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.20best 2.25

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.47▼best 3.55

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Independiente2.28▲ 0.34

Draw3.02▼ 0.13

Independ. Rivadavia3.44▼ 0.71

19 Aug – 22 Aug

Model vs market

Independiente win+3.7pp

45%

Market

41.3%

Draw-1.3pp

30%

Market

31.3%

Independ. Rivadavia win-2.4pp

25%

Market

27.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.