Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons
Lucas Oil Stadium
Value found
+36.3% edgeAtlanta Falcons win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 10 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 20-23
The Atlanta Falcons seem to hold a statistical advantage going into this matchup, having secured victories in 4 of their last 5 games, while the Indianapolis Colts have struggled, losing 4 out of their last 5 fixtures. Historically, the head-to-head record shows a competitive but slightly favorable trend for the Colts; however, recent performance metrics suggest the Falcons may be better positioned to capitalize on the Colts' defensive vulnerabilities. Given these trends, the predicted score leans towards a narrow win for the Falcons.
- Atlanta Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 matches
- Indianapolis Colts have lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- Indy has conceded an average of 27.1 points per game in their last 10 matches
- Colts lost 3 out of their last 5 games by a margin of more than a touchdown
Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Atlanta Falcons
- Poor recent formIndianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L - Good recent formAtlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Tighter defenseAtlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons are conceding just 20.7 points per game over their recent matches.
20.7/game conceded - Historical edgeIndianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Atlanta Falcons at 54% — final result was Atlanta Falcons win, Indianapolis Colts 6-34 Atlanta Falcons.
Predicted score was 20-23.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (58/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Indianapolis Colts have averaged 19.5 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Atlanta Falcons have averaged 21.6 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Indianapolis Colts are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Atlanta Falcons.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Indianapolis Colts | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| -4 | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| -3.5 | 1.90 | 1.88 |
| -3 | 1.84 | 1.93 |
| -2 | 1.77 | 1.97 |
| -1.5 | 1.82 | 1.94 |
| -1 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| -0.5 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
| +0.5 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
| 35 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
| 35.5 | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| 36 | 1.86 | 1.92 |
| 36.5 | 1.89 | 1.88 |
| 37 | 1.90 | 1.87 |
| 37.5 | 1.93 | 1.82 |
| 38 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
More NFL predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons?+
Our AI model favors Atlanta Falcons to win, with a 54% probability (Indianapolis Colts 46%).
What time does Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 22, 2026, 5:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons?+
Indianapolis Colts: 6-0-0-0. Atlanta Falcons: 10-14-7-3. Final: 6-34.