Irtysh vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League

Premier League· Regular Season - 22

Irtysh

0–2Full-time

FK Tobol Kostanay

LWWLDLGoals 16-1315th in league

WWWDLWGoals 17-137th in league

Home2W 3D 5L(10-14)

Away1W 2D 9L(8-19)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

20'O. Samuel
23'R. Senhadji (A. Tagybergen)
35'D. Ustimenko
36'J. Poé
40'R. Senhadji (R. Asrankulov)
42'A. Borsic
46'Y. Shimamura (M. Khalmatov)
46'R. Karimov (Kalil)
52'V. Lisakovich
68'A. Marochkin
68'A. Borsic
68'A. Borsic
72'M. Myakish
73'Amine Talal (P. Ndiaye)
76'R. Yudenkov
85'D. Nyrkov (B. Toleuov)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

IrtyshFK Tobol Kostanay

1.6
Goals/game: 1.7; 1.3
Conceded/game: 1.3

AI match analysis

Irtysh win

37.84%

Draw

25.55%

FK Tobol Kostanay win

36.61%

59.5%BTTS

56.6%Over 2.5

22.3%Irtysh clean sheet

23.5%FK Tobol Kostanay clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a tightly contested match between Irtysh and FK Tobol Kostanay, with both teams facing challenges in recent form. Irtysh's home record shows some potential, but they have struggled against FK Tobol Kostanay in their last encounters. The scoring averages indicate a modest goal expectation, supporting a likely draw at 1-1.

FK Tobol Kostanay has not won any of their last 11 away games
Irtysh averages 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches
The last 5 head-to-head matches show parity with 2 draws and 3 wins split between teams

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

68/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Irtysh

Good recent formFK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Weak home recordIrtysh
Irtysh have won 2 of their last 10 home matches.
2/10 home wins
Weak away recordFK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay have won 1 of their last 12 away matches.
1/12 away wins
Historical edgeFK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
5/8 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Irtysh at 37.84% — final result was FK Tobol Kostanay win, Irtysh 0-2 FK Tobol Kostanay.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Irtysh2.42market 41.3% · model 37.84%

FK Tobol Kostanay ✓2.52market 39.7% · model 36.61%

Draw3.35market 29.8% · model 25.55%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Irtysh have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
FK Tobol Kostanay have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Irtysh wins

2Draws

5FK Tobol Kostanay wins

4-11Goals

Irtysh

0–0Aug 17, 2019, 12:00 PM

FK Tobol Kostanay

Irtysh

0–2Aug 11, 2019, 1:30 PM

FK Tobol Kostanay

3–0Mar 9, 2019, 11:00 AM

Irtysh

FK Tobol Kostanay

1–2Oct 6, 2018, 11:00 AM

Irtysh

FK Tobol Kostanay

1–1Jul 22, 2018, 1:00 PM

Irtysh

0–1May 9, 2018, 11:00 AM

FK Tobol Kostanay

Irtysh

1–2Sep 10, 2017, 9:00 AM

FK Tobol Kostanay

Irtysh

0–1Jul 10, 2017, 2:00 PM

FK Tobol Kostanay

Odds comparison

Match winner

Irtysh2.42▲best 2.65

Draw3.35▲best 3.57

FK Tobol Kostanay2.52▼best 2.63

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.76▲best 1.80

Under 2.51.97▼best 2.02

Both teams to score

Yes1.60▼best 1.65

No2.14▲best 2.25

Double chance

Irtysh/Draw1.42▲best 1.50

Irtysh/FK Tobol Kostanay1.26▼best 1.30

Draw/FK Tobol Kostanay1.48▼best 1.53

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Irtysh2.42

Draw3.35▲ 0.02

FK Tobol Kostanay2.52▼ 0.08

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Irtysh win+0.6pp

37.84%

Market

37.2%

Draw-1.3pp

25.55%

Market

26.9%

FK Tobol Kostanay win+0.8pp

36.61%

Market

35.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.